Background The cortisol awakening response (CAR) has been shown to predict major depressive episodes (MDEs) over a 1-year period. It is unknown whether this effect: (a) is stable over longer periods of time; (b) is independent of prospective stressful life events; and (c) differentially predicts first onsets or recurrences of MDEs. Method A total of 270 older adolescents (mean age 17.06 years at cortisol measurement) from the larger prospective Northwestern-UCLA Youth Emotion Project completed baseline diagnostic and life stress interviews, questionnaires, and a 3-day cortisol sampling protocol measuring the CAR and diurnal rhythm, as well as up to four annual follow-up interviews of diagnoses and life stress. Results Non-proportional person-month survival analyses revealed that higher levels of the baseline CAR significantly predict MDEs for 2.5 years following cortisol measurement. However, the strength of prediction of depressive episodes significantly decays over time, with the CAR no longer significantly predicting MDEs after 2.5 years. Elevations in the CAR did not significantly increase vulnerability to prospective major stressful life events. They did, however, predict MDE recurrences more strongly than first onsets. Conclusions These results suggest that a high CAR represents a time-limited risk factor for onsets of MDEs, which increases risk for depression independently of future major stressful life events. Possible explanations for the stronger effect of the CAR for predicting MDE recurrences than first onsets are discussed.

Few studies comprehensively evaluate which types of life stress are most strongly associated with depressive episode onsets, over and above other forms of stress, and comparisons between acute and chronic stress are particularly lacking. Past research implicates major (moderate to severe) stressful life events (SLEs), and to a lesser extent, interpersonal forms of stress; research conflicts on whether dependent or independent SLEs are more potent, but theory favors dependent SLEs. The present study used five years of annual diagnostic and life stress interviews of chronic stress and SLEs from two separate samples (Sample 1 N = 432; Sample 2 N = 146) transitioning into emerging adulthood; one sample also collected early adversity interviews. Multivariate analyses simultaneously examined multiple forms of life stress to test hypotheses that all major SLEs, then particularly interpersonal forms of stress, and then dependent SLEs would contribute unique variance to major depressive episode (MDE) onsets. Person-month survival analysis consistently implicated chronic interpersonal stress and major interpersonal SLEs as statistically unique predictors of risk for MDE onset. In addition, follow-up analyses demonstrated temporal precedence for chronic stress; tested differences by gender; showed that recent chronic stress mediates the relationship between adolescent adversity and later MDE onsets; and revealed interactions of several forms of stress with socioeconomic status (SES). Specifically, as SES declined, there was an increasing role for non-interpersonal chronic stress and non-interpersonal major SLEs, coupled with a decreasing role for interpersonal chronic stress. Implications for future etiological research were discussed.

The current study evaluated the degree to which startle reflexes (SRs) in safe conditions versus danger conditions were predictive of the onset of anxiety disorders. Specificity of these effects to anxiety disorders was evaluated in comparison to unipolar depressive disorders and with consideration of level of neuroticism. A startle paradigm was administered at baseline to 132 nondisordered adolescents as part of a longitudinal study examining risk factors for emotional disorders. Participants underwent a repetition of eight safe-danger sequences and were told that delivery of an aversive stimulus leading to a muscle contraction of the arm would occur only in the late part of danger conditions. One aversive stimulus occurred midway in the safe-danger sequences. Participants were assessed for the onset of anxiety and unipolar depressive disorders annually over the next 3 to 4 years. Larger SR magnitude during safe conditions following delivery of the aversive stimulus predicted the subsequent first onset of anxiety disorders. Moreover, prediction of the onset of anxiety disorders remained significant above and beyond the effects of comorbid unipolar depression, neuroticism, and subjective ratings of intensity of the aversive stimulus. In sum, elevated responding to safe conditions following an aversive stimulus appears to be a specific, prospective risk factor for the first onset of anxiety disorders.

Overall, research has evidenced support for Post's (1992) model, which asserts that the 1st episode of depression is more likely to be associated with severe life events than are subsequent episodes. In spite of this, there are significant gaps in the understanding of the stress-depression association. This study aimed to address three gaps by (a) identifying the explanatory model underlying the association (stress sensitization vs. stress autonomy), (b) elucidating how the role of stress changes with successive episodes, and (c) examining the role of nonsevere events. The impact and occurrence of severe and nonsevere events in a 5-year longitudinal study of late-adolescent women were examined using Cox regression models. Overall, we found support for the stress sensitization model over the stress autonomy model. Specifically, the impact of nonsevere (but not severe) events was greater in individuals with a history of depression compared with those with no history of depression. In addition, the occurrence of severe (but not nonsevere) events was greater for 1st onsets than recurrences. These effects were modified by event independence. The results were discussed in terms of the underlying mechanisms of the stress-depression association and future directions for research were elaborated.

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