BackgroundIndicators of cardiometabolic risk typically include non-clinical factors (e.g., smoking). While the incorporation of non-clinical factors can improve absolute risk prediction, it is impossible to study the contribution of non-clinical factors when they are both predictors and part of the outcome measure. Metabolic syndrome, incorporating only clinical measures, seems a solution yet provides no information on risk severity. The aims of this study were: 1) to construct two continuous clinical indices of cardiometabolic risk (cCICRs), and assess their accuracy in predicting 10-year incident cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes; and 2) to compare the predictive accuracies of these cCICRs with existing risk indicators that incorporate non-clinical factors (Framingham Risk Scores).MethodsData from a population-based biomedical cohort (n = 4056) were used to construct two cCICRs from waist circumference, mean arteriole pressure, fasting glucose, triglycerides and high density lipoprotein: 1) the mean of standardised risk factors (cCICR-Z); and 2) the weighted mean of the two first principal components from principal component analysis (cCICR-PCA). The predictive accuracies of the two cCICRs and the Framingham Risk Scores were assessed and compared using ROC curves.ResultsBoth cCICRs demonstrated moderate accuracy (AUCs 0.72 – 0.76) in predicting incident cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes, among men and women. There were no significant differences between the predictive accuracies of the cCICRs and the Framingham Risk Scores.ConclusionscCICRs may be useful in research investigating associations between non-clinical factors and health by providing suitable alternatives to current risk indicators which include non-clinical factors.

BackgroundManagement of nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease (NTMLD) consists of a long-term multi-drug antibiotic regimen, yet many patients do not achieve culture conversion. We estimated the NTMLD-related direct medical costs in Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (UK) among refractory patients who were infected with Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC), without concomitant cystic fibrosis, tuberculosis, or HIV.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective observational physician survey of nationally representative samples. The survey captured anonymized information about patients’ treatment histories for NTMLD-related health care resource utilization over a 24-month period. We summarized NTMLD-related resource use and estimated the total economic burden, from each country’s health care payer perspective.ResultsIn total, 59 physicians provided data on 157 patients. The average person time observed during the 24-month period was 1.7 years (SD: 0.4); 17% of patients died by the end of the study period. The major components of NTMLD-related direct medical costs among refractory patients were hospitalizations (varying from 29% of total annual costs in the UK to 69% in France), outpatient visits (8% in Canada to 51% in the UK), and outpatient testing such as post-diagnostic sputum testing, bronchial wash/lavage, spirometry, biopsies, imaging, and electrocardiograms (5% in France to 35% in Canada). In this patient cohort, the average direct medical costs per person-year, in local currencies, were approximately $16,200 (Canada), €11,600 (Germany), €17,900 (France) and £9,700 (UK).ConclusionsBased on this study’s findings, we conclude that managing patients with refractory NTMLD caused by MAC is associated with a substantial economic burden.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-018-3489-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Associations between local-area residential features and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) may be mediated by individual-level health behaviors. Such indirect effects have rarely been tested. This study assessed whether individual-level self-reported physical activity mediated the influence of local-area descriptive norms and objectively expressed walkability on 10-year change in HbA1c. HbA1c was assessed three times for adults in a 10-year population-based biomedical cohort (n = 4056). Local-area norms specific to each participant were calculated, aggregating responses from a separate statewide surveillance survey for 1600 m road-network buffers centered on participant addresses (local prevalence of overweight/obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2) and physical inactivity (<150 min/week)). Separate latent growth models estimated direct and indirect (through physical activity) effects of local-area exposures on change in HbA1c, accounting for spatial clustering and covariates (individual-level age, sex, smoking status, marital status, employment and education, and area-level median household income). HbA1c worsened over time. Local-area norms directly and indirectly predicted worsening HbA1c trajectories. Walkability was directly and indirectly protective of worsening HbA1c. Local-area descriptive norms and walkability influence cardiometabolic risk trajectory through individual-level physical activity. Efforts to reduce population cardiometabolic risk should consider the extent of local-area unhealthful behavioral norms and walkability in tailoring strategies to improve physical activity.

BackgroundIndividual-level health outcomes are shaped by environmental risk conditions. Norms figure prominently in socio-behavioural theories yet spatial variations in health-related norms have rarely been investigated as environmental risk conditions. This study assessed: 1) the contributions of local descriptive norms for overweight/obesity and dietary behaviour to 10-year change in glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), accounting for food resource availability; and 2) whether associations between local descriptive norms and HbA1c were moderated by food resource availability.MethodsHbA1c, representing cardiometabolic risk, was measured three times over 10 years for a population-based biomedical cohort of adults in Adelaide, South Australia. Residential environmental exposures were defined using 1600 m participant-centred road-network buffers. Local descriptive norms for overweight/obesity and insufficient fruit intake (proportion of residents with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 [n = 1890] or fruit intake of <2 serves/day [n = 1945], respectively) were aggregated from responses to a separate geocoded population survey. Fast-food and healthful food resource availability (counts) were extracted from a retail database.Separate sets of multilevel models included different predictors, one local descriptive norm and either fast-food or healthful food resource availability, with area-level education and individual-level covariates (age, sex, employment status, education, marital status, and smoking status). Interactions between local descriptive norms and food resource availability were tested.ResultsHbA1c concentration rose over time. Local descriptive norms for overweight/obesity and insufficient fruit intake predicted greater rates of increase in HbA1c. Neither fast-food nor healthful food resource availability were associated with change in HbA1c. Greater healthful food resource availability reduced the rate of increase in HbA1c concentration attributed to the overweight/obesity norm.ConclusionsLocal descriptive health-related norms, not food resource availability, predicted 10-year change in HbA1c. Null findings for food resource availability may reflect a sufficiency or minimum threshold level of resources such that availability poses no barrier to obtaining healthful or unhealthful foods for this region. However, the influence of local descriptive norms varied according to food resource availability in effects on HbA1c. Local descriptive health-related norms have received little attention thus far but are important influences on individual cardiometabolic risk. Further research is needed to explore how local descriptive norms contribute to chronic disease risk and outcomes.

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Residential areas may shape health, yet few studies are longitudinal or concurrently test relationships between multiple residential features and health. This longitudinal study concurrently assessed the contributions of multiple environmental features to 10-year change in clinically measured body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). Longitudinal data for adults (18+ years of age, n = 2253) from the north-west of Adelaide, Australia were linked to built environment measures representing the physical activity and food environment (expressed for residence-based 1600 m road-network buffers) and area education. Associations were concurrently estimated using latent growth models. In models including all environmental exposure measures, area education was associated with change in BMI and WC (protective effects). Dwelling density was associated with worsening BMI and WC but also highly correlated with area education and moderately correlated with count of fast food outlets. Public open space (POS) area was associated with worsening WC. Intersection density, land use mix, greenness, and a retail food environment index were not associated with change in BMI or WC. This study found greater dwelling density and POS area exacerbated increases in BMI and WC. Greater area education was protective against worsening body size. Interventions should consider dwelling density and POS, and target areas with low SES.

Presumed pathways from environments to cardiometabolic risk largely implicate health behaviour although mental health may play a role. Few studies assess relationships between these factors. This study estimated associations between area socioeconomic status (SES), mental health, diet, physical activity, and 10-year change in glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA 1c ), comparing two proposed path structures: 1) mental health and behaviour functioning as parallel mediators between area SES and HbA 1c ; and 2) a sequential structure where mental health influences behaviour and consequently HbA 1c . Three waves (10 years) of population-based biomedical cohort data were spatially linked to census data based on participant residential address. Area SES was expressed at baseline using an established index (SEIFA-IEO). Individual behavioural and mental health information (Wave 2) included diet (fruit and vegetable servings per day), physical activity (meets/does not meet recommendations), and the mental health component score of the 36-item Short Form Health Survey. HbA 1c was measured at each wave. Latent variable growth models with a structural equation modelling approach estimated associations within both parallel and sequential path structures. Models were adjusted for age, sex, employment status, marital status, education, and smoking. The sequential path model best fit the data. HbA 1c worsened over time. Greater area SES was statistically significantly associated with greater fruit intake, meeting physical activity recommendations, and had a protective effect against increasing HbA 1c directly and indirectly through physical activity behaviour. Positive mental health was statistically significantly associated with greater fruit and vegetable intakes and was indirectly protective against increasing HbA 1c through physical activity. Greater SES was protective against increasing HbA 1c . This relationship was partially mediated by physical activity but not diet. A protective effect of mental health was exerted through physical

Factors associated with physical activity in this rural adult population differed by sex. Sex-specific approaches to promote physical activity might have utility for this population. Strategies to enhance social connectedness among men and encourage physical activity outside of work can be warranted. Women can require programs to help them develop a regular physical activity routine and improve self-efficacy.