While contemporary models of psychosis have proposed a number of putative psychological mechanisms, how these impact on individuals to increase intensity of psychotic experiences in real life, outside the research laboratory, remains unclear. We aimed to investigate whether elevated stress sensitivity, experiences of aberrant novelty and salience, and enhanced anticipation of threat contribute to the development of psychotic experiences in daily life. We used the experience sampling method (ESM) to assess stress, negative affect, aberrant salience, threat anticipation, and psychotic experiences in 51 individuals with first-episode psychosis (FEP), 46 individuals with an at-risk mental state (ARMS) for psychosis, and 53 controls with no personal or family history of psychosis. Linear mixed models were used to account for the multilevel structure of ESM data. In all 3 groups, elevated stress sensitivity, aberrant salience, and enhanced threat anticipation were associated with an increased intensity of psychotic experiences. However, elevated sensitivity to minor stressful events (χ2 = 6.3, P = 0.044), activities (χ2 = 6.7, P = 0.036), and areas (χ2 = 9.4, P = 0.009) and enhanced threat anticipation (χ2 = 9.3, P = 0.009) were associated with more intense psychotic experiences in FEP individuals than controls. Sensitivity to outsider status (χ2 = 5.7, P = 0.058) and aberrantly salient experiences (χ2 = 12.3, P = 0.002) were more strongly associated with psychotic experiences in ARMS individuals than controls. Our findings suggest that stress sensitivity, aberrant salience, and threat anticipation are important psychological processes in the development of psychotic experiences in daily life in the early stages of the disorder.

Our findings supported dysfunctional metacognition as common processes across psychopathologies, with certain dimensions being more prevalent in particular disorders.

Two reasoning biases, jumping to conclusions (JTC) and belief inflexibility, have been found to be associated with delusions. We examined these biases and their relationship with delusional conviction in a longitudinal cohort of people with schizophrenia-spectrum psychosis. We hypothesized that JTC, lack of belief flexibility, and delusional conviction would form distinct factors, and that JTC and lack of belief flexibility would predict less change in delusional conviction over time. Two hundred seventy-three patients with delusions were assessed over twelve months of a treatment trial (Garety et al., 2008). Forty-one percent of the sample had 100% conviction in their delusions, 50% showed a JTC bias, and 50%–75% showed a lack of belief flexibility. Delusional conviction, JTC, and belief flexibility formed distinct factors although conviction was negatively correlated with belief flexibility. Conviction declined slightly over the year in this established psychosis group, whereas the reasoning biases were stable. There was little evidence that reasoning predicted the slight decline in conviction. The degree to which people believe their delusions, their ability to think that they may be mistaken and to consider alternative explanations, and their hastiness in decision making are three distinct processes although belief flexibility and conviction are related. In this established psychosis sample, reasoning biases changed little in response to medication or psychological therapy. Required now is examination of these processes in psychosis groups where there is greater change in delusion conviction, as well as tests of the effects on delusions when these reasoning biases are specifically targeted.

There has been an increase in attention to studying shared mechanisms underlying psychiatric disorders. The 'Jumping to conclusions' (JTC(1)) bias, a tendency to make decisions with certainty based on insufficient information, has been reported in patients with psychosis, and process-based treatment protocols targeting this bias have recently been developed. This review aimed to investigate to what extent the JTC bias, measured by various tasks, is associated with psychotic disorders and other psychiatric disorders using a meta-analytic approach. We examined 6864 articles published between 1990 and 2015, and meta-analysed 46 studies. The first meta-analysis included 40 effect sizes comparing patients with schizophrenia spectrum or other psychotic disorders and healthy controls. There was a hastier data-gathering style in patients with psychosis than healthy individuals, with a moderate aggregated effect size. The second meta-analysis included 18 effect sizes comparing patients with non-psychotic disorders and healthy controls. There was marked heterogeneity in effect sizes and evidence for publication bias. After removal of outliers, the aggregated effect size for JTC was not statistically significant. A planned subgroup analysis showed no significant effect of JTC in depression. Other diagnostic subgroups yielded small non-significant results. Therefore, our findings do not support the suggestion that JTC is a transdiagnostic phenomenon beyond psychosis.

Several integrated models of psychosis have implicated adverse, stressful contexts and experiences, and affective and cognitive processes in the onset of psychosis. In these models, the effects of stress are posited to contribute to the development of psychotic experiences via pathways through affective disturbance, cognitive biases, and anomalous experiences. However, attempts to systematically test comprehensive models of these pathways remain sparse. Using the Experience Sampling Method in 51 individuals with first-episode psychosis (FEP), 46 individuals with an atrisk mental state (ARMS) for psychosis, and 53 controls, we investigated how stress, enhanced threat anticipation, and experiences of aberrant salience combine to increase the intensity of psychotic experiences. We fitted multilevel moderated mediation models to investigate indirect effects across these groups. We found that the effects of stress on psychotic experiences were mediated via pathways through affective disturbance in all 3 groups. The effect of stress on psychotic experiences was mediated by threat anticipation in FEP individuals and controls but not in ARMS individuals. There was only weak evidence of mediation via aberrant salience. However, aberrant salience retained a substantial direct effect on psychotic experiences, independently of stress, in all 3 groups. Our findings provide novel insights on the role of affective disturbance and threat anticipation in pathways through which stress impacts on the formation of psychotic experiences across different stages of early psychosis in daily life.