Background Routine services for tuberculosis (TB) are being disrupted by stringent lockdowns against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. We sought to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological impact of such disruptions on TB burden in high-burden countries, and how this negative impact could be mitigated. Methods We adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. The anticipated level of disruption reflected consensus from a rapid expert consultation. We modelled the impact of these disruptions on TB incidence and mortality over the next five years, and also considered potential interventions to curtail this impact. Findings Even temporary disruptions can cause long-term increases in TB incidence and mortality. If lockdown-related disruptions cause a temporary 50% reduction in TB transmission, we estimated that a 3-month suspension of TB services, followed by 10 months to restore to normal, would cause, over the next 5 years, an additional 1⋅19 million TB cases (Crl 1⋅06–1⋅33) and 361,000 TB deaths (CrI 333–394 thousand) in India, 24,700 (16,100–44,700) TB cases and 12,500 deaths (8.8–17.8 thousand) in Kenya, and 4,350 (826–6,540) cases and 1,340 deaths (815–1,980) in Ukraine. The principal driver of these adverse impacts is the accumulation of undetected TB during a lockdown. We demonstrate how long term increases in TB burden could be averted in the short term through supplementary “catch-up” TB case detection and treatment, once restrictions are eased. Interpretation Lockdown-related disruptions can cause long-lasting increases in TB burden, but these negative effects can be mitigated with rapid restoration of TB services, and targeted interventions that are implemented as soon as restrictions are lifted. Funding USAID and Stop TB Partnership
BackgroundThe Xpert MTB/RIF assay has garnered significant interest as a sensitive and rapid diagnostic tool to improve detection of sensitive and drug resistant tuberculosis. However, most existing literature has described the performance of MTB/RIF testing only in study conditions; little information is available on its use in routine case finding. TB REACH is a multi-country initiative focusing on innovative ways to improve case notification.MethodsWe selected a convenience sample of nine TB REACH projects for inclusion to cover a range of implementers, regions and approaches. Standard quarterly reports and machine data from the first 12 months of MTB/RIF implementation in each project were utilized to analyze patient yields, rifampicin resistance, and failed tests. Data was collected from September 2011 to March 2013. A questionnaire was implemented and semi-structured interviews with project staff were conducted to gather information on user experiences and challenges.ResultsAll projects used MTB/RIF testing for people with suspected TB, as opposed to testing for drug resistance among already diagnosed patients. The projects placed 65 machines (196 modules) in a variety of facilities and employed numerous case-finding strategies and testing algorithms. The projects consumed 47,973 MTB/RIF tests. Of valid tests, 7,195 (16.8%) were positive for MTB. A total of 982 rifampicin resistant results were found (13.6% of positive tests). Of all tests conducted, 10.6% failed. The need for continuous power supply was noted by all projects and most used locally procured solutions. There was considerable heterogeneity in how results were reported and recorded, reflecting the lack of standardized guidance in some countries.ConclusionsThe findings of this study begin to fill the gaps among guidelines, research findings, and real-world implementation of MTB/RIF testing. Testing with Xpert MTB/RIF detected a large number of people with TB that routine services failed to detect. The study demonstrates the versatility and impact of the technology, but also outlines various surmountable barriers to implementation. The study is not representative of all early implementer experiences with MTB/RIF testing but rather provides an overview of the shared issues as well as the many different approaches to programmatic MTB/RIF implementation.
Objective To review the characteristics of public-private mix projects in India and their effect on case notification and treatment outcomes for tuberculosis. Design Literature review. Data sources Review of surveillance records from Indian tuberculosis programme project, evaluation reports, and medical literature for public-private mix projects in India. Data extraction Project characteristics, tuberculosis case notification of new patients with sputum smear results positive for acid fast bacilli, and treatment outcome. Data synthesis Of 24 identified public-private mix projects, data were available from 14 (58%), involving private practitioners, corporations, and non-governmental organisations. In all reviewed projects, the public sector tuberculosis programme provided training and supervision of private providers. Among the five projects with available data on historical controls, case notification rates were higher after implementation of a public-private mix project. Among seven projects involving private practitioners, 2796 of 12 147 (23%) new patients positive for acid fast bacilli were attributed to private providers. Corporate based and non-governmental organisations served as the main source for tuberculosis programme services in seven project areas, detecting 9967 new patients positive for acid fast bacilli. In nine of 12 projects with data on treatment outcomes, private providers exceeded the programme target of 85% treatment success for new patients positive for acid fast bacilli. Conclusions Public-private mix activities were associated with increased case notification, while maintaining acceptable treatment outcomes. Collaborations between public and private providers of health care hold considerable potential to improve tuberculosis control in India.
BackgroundScreening of household contacts of tuberculosis (TB) patients is a recommended strategy to improve early case detection. While it has been widely implemented in low prevalence countries, the most optimal protocols for contact investigation in high prevalence, low resource settings is yet to be determined. This study evaluated contact investigation interventions in eleven lower and middle income countries and reviewed the association between context or program-related factors and the yield of cases among contacts.MethodsWe reviewed data from nineteen first wave TB REACH funded projects piloting innovations to improve case detection. These nineteen had fulfilled the eligibility criteria: contact investigation implementation and complete data reporting. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the percentage yield and case notifications for each project. Implementation strategies were delineated and the association between independent variables and yield was analyzed by fitting a random effects logistic regression.FindingsOverall, the nineteen interventions screened 139,052 household contacts, showing great heterogeneity in the percentage yield of microscopy confirmed cases (SS+), ranging from 0.1% to 6.2%). Compared to the most restrictive testing criteria (at least two weeks of cough) the aOR’s for lesser (any TB related symptom) and least (all contacts) restrictive testing criteria were 1.71 (95%CI 0.94−3.13) and 6.90 (95% CI 3.42−13.93) respectively. The aOR for inclusion of SS- and extra-pulmonary TB was 0.31 (95% CI 0.15−0.62) compared to restricting index cases to SS+ TB. Contact investigation contributed between <1% and 14% to all SS+ cases diagnosed in the intervention areas.ConclusionsThis study confirms that high numbers of active TB cases can be identified through contact investigation in a variety of contexts. However, design and program implementation factors appear to influence the yield of contact investigation and its concomitant contribution to TB case detection.
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