Objective Neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) comprise 41.8% of small intestine malignancies. The NET nomogram is a 15-item prognostic tool that includes relevant factors for guiding management decisions. This is the first external validation of this tool among American patients at a tertiary treatment center. Methods Patients who underwent surgical intervention from 2005 to 2017 were screened by retrospective chart review. Nomogram scores were calculated following the methods outlined by Modlin et al (Neuroendocrinology. 2010;92:143–157). Validation assessed the association between nomogram scores and survival using Wilcoxon test and Cox regression. Results Among the 121 patients selected, the NET nomogram significantly predicted survival as a continuous variable (P < 0.01) and when dichotomized using 83 points to distinguish low-risk versus high-risk groups (P < 0.01). However, the nomogram was not universally applicable as even at our specialty center, variables such as chromogranin A and urinary 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid are not routinely collected, whereas others, like tumor grade, do not reflect the most recently updated classifications. Conclusion The NET nomogram accurately identified patients at low and high risk of death. However, revision to update prognosticators could improve its usefulness for predicting survival of small intestine NETs.
Objective There is a scarcity of prognostic tools for small intestine neuroendocrine tumors (SI-NETs) and inconsistencies in currently available grading and staging systems. Nomograms are being proposed to address these limitations. However, none is specific to the US population. This study proposed a concise nomogram for SI-NETs using US population-based data. Methods Patients with SI-NETs (2004–2015) were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Variables selected were age, sex, race, tumor grade, primary tumor size, and TNM staging. Cox regression parameter estimates were used to generate nomogram scores. Results A total of 2734 patients were selected: 2050 for nomogram development and 684 for internal validation. Prognosticators, age (P < 0.0001), primary tumor size >3 cm (P < 0.0022), tumor grade (P < 0.0001), depth of invasion ≥T3 (P < 0.0280), and distant metastasis (P < 0.0001) were used to develop the nomogram. Nomogram scores ranges from 10 to 80 points with an area under the curve of 0.76, which remained consistently high during internal validation (area under the curve, 0.75). Conclusions This Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database nomorgram is a concise prognostic tool that demonstrated high predictive accuracy.
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