Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW.Download this ZEW Discussion Paper from our ftp server:ftp://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp08057.pdf The hypothesis underlying our empirical approach is that the stigma of unemployment is low when aggregate unemployment is high, as in this case, individual unemployment is not a strong signal for lower individual productivity. We use data from the German SocioEconomic Panel (GSOEP) to estimate the probability of being unemployed conditional on the employment state of the previous period (the state dependence effect) and other covariates using a dynamic, correlated random effects model.Our results show that positive deviations of the unemployment rate from its trend are indeed associated with a significantly lower level of state dependence. Overall, we conclude that stigmatization is one explanation for state dependence in individual's employment histories and thus contributes to the explanation of high and persistent rates of long-term unemployment in Germany. Das Wichtigste in KürzeIn Abstract. We present evidence for a highly significant interaction between state dependence in individual unemployment risk and the business cycle. The disadvantage from having been unemployed in the previous period is smaller in times of relatively high unemployment and larger in times of low unemployment. This is consistent with the existence of stigma effects in the sense that unemployed individuals face difficulties finding a new job because employers interpret unemployment as a negative signal and do so especially when it is easier to find jobs, i.e. when unemployment is low.JEL-Classification: J64, J65, C23

Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW.Download this ZEW Discussion Paper from our ftp server:ftp://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp08116.pdf between job-to-job and job-to-unemployment changes. Non-technical summaryKaplan-Meier survivor functions show that more than fifty percent of all new employment relationships end after in the first two years. The estimation results indicate huge differences between individuals but also between establishments with different characteristics. We conclude that persistence in individual mobility behavior is much reduced when firm-level heterogeneity is accounted for. Blue collar workers tend to select into long-tenure firms as compared to white collar workers. Positive effects of works councils and further training on job duration are high for blue collar skilled or semi-skilled workers but non-existent for white collar employees. Competing risks analysis shows that mobility to another job and exit to unemployment follow strikingly different processes. For instance having a university degree lowers the unemployment hazard but increases the likelihood of a job-to-job change. Das Wichtigste in Kürze Abstract:We examine job durations of German workers using linked employer-employee data.Our results indicate that exit rates are strongly influenced by firm characteristics. The effects of some of these characteristics, however, are limited to particular job positions or skill groups. There is clear evidence for a sorting process whereby workers with long expected job durations are matched to firms offering stable employment (and vice versa). An extension of the model to a competing-risks framework shows that both individual and firm-level characteristics differ greatly in their impact on job exit to different destination states. Among the substantive results, it would appear that works councils decrease exit both to unemployment and to new jobs, but do so only for blue collar workers. JEL-Codes: J62, J63, C41

Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW. Causal effects on employment after first birth -A dynamic treatment approach -Bernd Fitzenberger * , Katrin Sommerfeld * * , Susanne Steffes * * * Abstract:The effects of childbirth on future labor market outcomes are a key issue for policy discussion. This paper implements a dynamic treatment approach to estimate the effect of having the first child now versus later on future employment for the case of Germany, a country with a long maternity leave coverage. Effect heterogeneity is assessed by estimating ex post outcome regressions. Based on SOEP data, we provide estimates at a monthly frequency. The results show that there are very strong negative employment effects after childbirth. Although the employment loss is reduced over the first five years following childbirth, it does not level off to zero. The employment loss is lower for mothers with a university degree. It is especially high for medium-skilled mothers with long prebirth employment experience. We find a significant reduction in the employment loss for more recent childbirths. JEL-Classification: C14, J13, J22

Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW.Download this ZEW Discussion Paper from our ftp server:ftp://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp08116.pdf between job-to-job and job-to-unemployment changes. Non-technical summaryKaplan-Meier survivor functions show that more than fifty percent of all new employment relationships end after in the first two years. The estimation results indicate huge differences between individuals but also between establishments with different characteristics. We conclude that persistence in individual mobility behavior is much reduced when firm-level heterogeneity is accounted for. Blue collar workers tend to select into long-tenure firms as compared to white collar workers. Positive effects of works councils and further training on job duration are high for blue collar skilled or semi-skilled workers but non-existent for white collar employees. Competing risks analysis shows that mobility to another job and exit to unemployment follow strikingly different processes. For instance having a university degree lowers the unemployment hazard but increases the likelihood of a job-to-job change. Das Wichtigste in Kürze Abstract:We examine job durations of German workers using linked employer-employee data.Our results indicate that exit rates are strongly influenced by firm characteristics. The effects of some of these characteristics, however, are limited to particular job positions or skill groups. There is clear evidence for a sorting process whereby workers with long expected job durations are matched to firms offering stable employment (and vice versa). An extension of the model to a competing-risks framework shows that both individual and firm-level characteristics differ greatly in their impact on job exit to different destination states. Among the substantive results, it would appear that works councils decrease exit both to unemployment and to new jobs, but do so only for blue collar workers. JEL-Codes: J62, J63, C41

Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW. Causal effects on employment after first birth -A dynamic treatment approach -Bernd Fitzenberger * , Katrin Sommerfeld * * , Susanne Steffes * * * Abstract:The effects of childbirth on future labor market outcomes are a key issue for policy discussion. This paper implements a dynamic treatment approach to estimate the effect of having the first child now versus later on future employment for the case of Germany, a country with a long maternity leave coverage. Effect heterogeneity is assessed by estimating ex post outcome regressions. Based on SOEP data, we provide estimates at a monthly frequency. The results show that there are very strong negative employment effects after childbirth. Although the employment loss is reduced over the first five years following childbirth, it does not level off to zero. The employment loss is lower for mothers with a university degree. It is especially high for medium-skilled mothers with long prebirth employment experience. We find a significant reduction in the employment loss for more recent childbirths. JEL-Classification: C14, J13, J22