A prominent response of temperate aquatic ecosystems to climate warming is changes in phenology -advancements or delays in annually reoccurring events in an organism's life cycle. The exact seasonal timing of warming, in conjunction with species-specific lifehistory events such as emergence from resting stages, timing of spawning, generation times, or stage-specific prey requirements, may determine the nature of a species' response. We demonstrate that recent climate-induced shifts in the phenology of lake phytoplankton and zooplankton species in a temperate eutrophic lake (Mü ggelsee, Germany) differed according to differences in their characteristic life cycles. Fastgrowing plankton in spring (diatoms, Daphnia) showed significant and synchronous forward movements by about 1 month, induced by concurrent earlier ice break-up dates (diatoms) and higher spring water temperature (Daphnia). No such synchrony was observed for slow-growing summer zooplankton species with longer and more complex life cycles (copepods, larvae of the mussel Dreissena polymorpha). Although coexisting, the summer plankton responded species specifically to seasonal warming trends, depending on whether the timing of warming matched their individual thermal requirements at decisive developmental stages such as emergence from diapause (copepods), or spawning (Dreissena). Others did not change their phenology significantly, but nevertheless, increased in abundances. We show that the detailed seasonal pattern of warming influences the response of phyto-and zooplankton species to climate change, and point to the diverse nature of responses for species exhibiting complex life-history traits.

1. The impact of long thermal stratification events on some key properties in a polymictic lake was studied by determining the mixing regime of Mü ggelsee, Germany, using water temperature profiles taken hourly over 4 years. The period included two exceptional summer heatwaves. 2. Long thermal stratification events lasted from about 1 week to 2 months, and exhibited a high variability in thermocline depth and stratification intensity within and between events. 3. During stratification events, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations strongly decreased while hypolimnetic SRP accumulation increased, depending on the duration and intensity of stratification and on hypolimnetic water temperature. 4. The impact of stratification on the functional phytoplankton composition increased with increasing stratification duration, but was rather different for the heatwaves. 5. Stratification events were followed by strong nutrient pulses into the euphotic zone and intense phytoplankton growth, particularly after the heatwaves. Hence, the influence of the climate extremes counteracted effects of reduced external nutrient loading.

Twenty years (1983–2002) of hourly summer temperature data from the epilimnion of Müggelsee, a shallow lake in northern Germany, showed a long-term increase, with the rate of increase of the daily minima (nighttime temperatures) exceeding that of the daily maxima (daytime temperatures). This does not simply reflect the long-term behaviour of air temperature, which did not exhibit a significant degree of day–night asymmetry. A sensitivity analysis based on a heat-balance model revealed that the daily extrema of the lake surface equilibrium temperature responded differently not only to shifts in air temperature, but also to shifts in wind speed, relative humidity, and cloud cover, suggesting that long-term changes in all four variables contribute to day–night asymmetry in the epilimnetic temperature. A comparison of nighttime and daytime estimates of the heat flux components into the lake indicates that the emission of long-wave radiation from the atmosphere is likely to be the main process responsible for day–night asymmetry in the epilimnetic temperature. Although this process is partially dependent on air temperature, it is also dependent on relative humidity and cloud cover. The influence of long-term changes in these additional driving variables on epilimnetic temperatures cannot therefore be neglected.

Müggelsee, a shallow eutrophic lake (Berlin, Germany), has been subject to global warming and concurrent reductions of anthropogenic nutrient loading during the past decades. Here, we focus on the recent increase in abundance of Dreissena polymorpha larvae. We aimed at ascertaining whether the change in abundance of larvae was driven by changes in climate, especially by climate warming, and/or by the concurrent changes in trophic state of the lake. Both the numbers of small, newly developed larvae and their lengths have increased in recent years, suggesting that conditions for overall reproductive success have improved. The timing of the increase in abundance of larvae was matched by changes in nutrient loading and phytoplankton biomass, induced by a reduced inflow of nutrients into the lake. Besides a correlation between the first appearance of larvae each year and the timing of the requisite temperature for first spawning (12 degrees C), no relationship between changes in water temperature and abundance, length and survival rates of larvae was found. However, a sudden drop in abundance of larvae in 2003 may be primarily attributed to low dissolved oxygen conditions during an unusually long period of stratification, induced by anomalous meteorological conditions. The increase in length and survival rates of larvae was most likely due to changes in food composition, which followed the decrease in nutrient availability, and to changes in the occurrence of planktivorous fish. The results suggest that the first appearance of larvae per year and the decline in abundance of larvae in 2003 were driven by climatic influences, while the overall increase in abundance and length of D. polymorpha larvae in Müggelsee was more likely caused by changes in the trophic state of the lake rather than by climate warming.