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Since 1980, China and India have achieved remarkable rates of economic growth and poverty reduction. The emergence of China and India as major forces in the global economy has been one of the most significant economic developments of the past quarter century. This paper examines sources of economic growth in the two countries, comparing and contrasting their experiences over the past 25 years. In this paper, we investigate patterns of economic growth for China and India by constructing growth accounts that uncover the supply-side sources of output change for each economy. Some of the results confirm themes that have emerged from the prior literature on the economic development of the two countries, however, some new findings emerge as well. In addition to decompositions of aggregate growth, we construct separate accounts for the three major economic sectors: agriculture; industry; and services. This level of detail enables us to highlight key differences in the development paths taken by China and India. In conclusion, we assess the prospects for future growth in each country.

THE IMPRESSIVE economic performance of many Asian economies during the past three decades is now an old story. The growth of per capita GDP averaged over 4 percent in China and the major East Asian economies (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand) between 1960 and 1994, compared with less than 2 percent in other developing economies and 2.6 percent among the industrial countries.' East Asia stands out as the only region where living standards are catching up to those in industrial countries, while other parts of the developing world seem to be struggling to either tread water or fall further and further behind (see table 1). The exemplary performance of many East Asian economies has been the basis for a large and varied literature, much of which explores reasons for the persistently high growth and draws lessons for other countries that would like to follow suit. A surprising aspect of this literature is the lack of agreement on fundamental aspects of the performance record that analysts seek to explain. Is the basis for East Aslihan Yildiz assisted in the preparation of the paper, and a special debt is owed to Yu-Chin Chen, who assisted with the construction of the data for the growth accounts. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representative of the staff or trustees of the Brookings Institution. 1. East Asia, as a region, is defined to exclude China and Japan. Our somewhat unconventional group of East Asian economies is based on the availability of data to construct the growth accounts. We include all but two (China and Hong Kong) of the eight economies that were the focus of the World Bank study The East Asian Miracle (World Bank, 1993a) and add the Philippines. We include Japan with the industrial economies. 135 136 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2:1996 Table 1. Basic Indicators of Economic Growth, by Region and Countrya Units as indicated Per capita incomec Growth rates, 1960-94d Region and Population country I990b 1960 1990 GDP Population Labor force China 1,134 0.6 Source: Population and GDP are the authors' calculations based on data from the World Bank's CD-ROM World Data 1995 (hereafter referred to by its title alone). Per capita income is calculated using data from the Penn-World Tables, mark 5.6 (accessed via the worldwide web page of the National Bureau of Economic Research). Labor force numbers are from unpublished data provided by the International Labour Organisation. a. Computed using the eighty-eight country sample. Regional averages are calculated by weighting each country by its average GDP over 1960-94, as measured in 1985 dollars. b. Millions. c. Thousands of 1985 dollars. d. Annual percentage rate. Asian growth the maintenance of high rates of physical and human capital accumulation over a number of decades-a willingness to make the sacrifices of current consumption necessary to invest for the future? Or has the key been the less costly approach of adopting existing technologies from more advanced eco...

THE CURRENCY CRISES that broke out in East Asia in mid-1997 have been followed by more than a year of tumult in international financial markets. These crises have had a serious impact on the emerging market economies, forcing many to raise domestic interest rates so as to stem an outflow of financial capital and prevent further exchange rate collapse. These interest rate increases have, in turn, depressed domestic economic activity. Not surprisingly, this severe financial instability has intensified discussions about the benefits and risks to developing economies from allowing capital to flow freely across national borders. 1 For many developing countries, the ability to draw upon an international pool of financial capital offers large potential benefits. Low levels of capital per worker in these countries have long held output down. Net foreign resource inflows-current account deficits-can augment private saving and help these countries reach higher rates of capital accumulation and growth. Access to international capital markets provides the means to finance those resource flows. Some types of foreign capital inflows, principally foreign direct investment (FDI), may also facilitate the transfer of

Abstract-Here we present the design of a passivedynamics based, fully autonomous, 3-D, bipedal walking robot that uses simple control, consumes little energy, and has human-like morphology and gait. Design aspects covered here include the freely rotating hip joint with angle bisecting mechanism; freely rotating knee joints with latches; direct actuation of the ankles with a spring, release mechanism, and reset motor; wide feet that are shaped to aid lateral stability; and the simple control algorithm. The biomechanics context of this robot is discussed in more detail in [1], and movies of the robot walking are available at Science Online and http://www.tam.cornell.edu/∼ruina/powerwalk.html. This robot adds evidence to the idea that passive-dynamic approaches might help design walking robots that are simpler, more efficient and easier to control.

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Abstract-Few comparisons have been performed across torque controllers for exoskeletons, and differences among devices have made interpretation difficult. In this study, we compared the torque-tracking performance of nine control methods, including variations on classical feedback control, modelbased control, adaptive control and iterative learning. Each was tested with four high-level controllers that determined desired torque based on time, joint angle, a neuromuscular model, or electromyography. Controllers were implemented on a tethered ankle exoskeleton with series elastic actuation. Measurements were taken while one human subject walked on a treadmill at 1.25 m·s -1 for one hundred steady-state steps. The combination of proportional derivative control with iterative learning resulted in the lowest errors for all high-level controllers. With timebased desired torque, rms errors were 0.6 N·m (1.3% of peak torque) step by step, and 0.1 N·m (0.2%) on average. These results indicate that model-free, integration-free feedback control is suited to the uncertain dynamics of the human-robot system, while iterative learning is effective in the cyclic task of walking.

Since the European Monetary System was instituted in March 1979, there has been a dramatic reduction in the inflation rates of member countries. This development is widely attributed to the EMS itself. The purpose of this paper is to argue that the theoretical and empirical basis for such a claim is far from conclusive. On the theoretical side, the paper develops a model which highlights two issues. First, changes in the 'rules" of the exchange rate system need not coincide with changes in expectations about Central Bank behavior. In fact, expectations in France do not seem to have changed until policy makers "got tough" in 1982-83. Second, different researchers have made quite different assumptions about exactly what "rules" the EMS imposes. The paper shows that how the system works matters in terms of the effect joining will have on inflation. On the empirical side, the paper shows that effects which have been attributed to the EMS are in large part due to the global deflation since 1979 and to the fact that EMS members had relatively low inflation before 1979. However, even these estimates should be interpreted with caution. They are very sensitive to time period and to which nonEMS countries are included in the sample.