Background
Drug use for indications not approved by the Food and Drug Administration exceeds 20% of prescribing. Available compendia indicate that a minority of off-label uses are well supported by evidence. Policy makers, however, lack information to identify where systematic reviews of the evidence or other research would be most valuable.
Methods
We developed a quantitative model for prioritizing individual drugs for future research on off-label uses. The base model incorporated three key factors, 1) the volume of off-label use with inadequate evidence, 2) safety, and 3) cost and market considerations. Nationally representative prescribing data were used to estimate the number of off-label drug uses by indication from 1/2005 through 6/2007 in the United States, and these indications were then categorized according to the adequacy of scientific support. Black box warnings and safety alerts were used to quantify drug safety. Drug cost, date of market entry, and marketing expenditures were used to quantify cost and market considerations. Each drug was assigned a relative value for each factor, and the factors were then weighted in the final model to produce a priority score. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying the weightings and model parameters.
Results
Drugs that were consistently ranked highly in both our base model and sensitivity analyses included quetiapine, warfarin, escitalopram, risperidone, montelukast, bupropion, sertraline, venlafaxine, celecoxib, lisinopril, duloxetine, trazodone, olanzapine, and epoetin alfa.
Conclusion
Future research into off-label drug use should focus on drugs used frequently with inadequate supporting evidence, particularly if further concerns are raised by known safety issues, high drug cost, recent market entry, and extensive marketing. Based on quantitative measures of these factors, we have prioritized drugs where targeted research and policy activities have high potential value.