Abstract:This study employs the daily data of the Stock Exchange of Thailand to test for the leverage and volatility feedback effects. The period of investigation is during January 4, 2005 to December 27, 2013, which includes the Subprime crisis period in the US that might affect the volatility of stock market return in emerging stock markets. The results from this study show that the US subprime crisis imposes a minimal positive impact on volatility. In addition, the estimations of the three parametric asymmetric volatility models give the results showing some evidence of the volatility feedback and leverage effects. The findings give implications for portfolio diversification and risk management.
This study examines the relationship among the price variables in the Thailand stock market, the foreign exchange market, the international gold market, and the crude oil market. Specifically, the study investigates whether (1) there exists a long-run equilibrium among oil price, gold price, foreign exchange, and the stock market index in Thailand, and (2) there is any dynamic effect of each asset market on other asset markets. All asset price series have shown both upward and downward trends over the study period. All monthly series in four markets from January 2000 to December 2018 are nonstationary and are integrated of order one. Then, the Johansen cointegration test is employed. The normalized cointegrating coefficients are negative. Such empirical result reveals that a significant long-run relationship exists among price variables in all asset markets, so that each asset class acts as a hedge against each other. The Granger causality test shows that the causations run from the stock price to the foreign exchange rate and the international gold price to the foreign exchange rate. Other short-run relationships have no significant causal links.
This article investigates the impacts of changes in the U.S.-implied volatility on the changes in implied volatilities of the Euro and Thai stock markets. For that purpose, volatilities implicit in stock index option prices from the United States, Euro, and Thai stock markets are analyzed using the Standard Granger Causality Test, impulse response analysis, and variance decompositions. The results found in this study suggest that the U.S. stock market is the leading source of volatility transmissions since the changes in implied volatility in the U.S. stock market are transmitted to the Euro and Thai stock markets. Implied volatility indexes are used because they contain information about future realized volatility beyond that contained past volatility. Therefore, implied volatility indexes can be used as an underlying asset in a derivative market. The risk factors that can gauge the expectations of institutional investors are important to the key players in international stock markets. Given the dominance of institutional traders in the international derivative markets, the implied volatilities should reflect international traders' sentiment. The findings in the present article give recent knowledge for portfolio managers because they need to know the degree of dependency across stock markets so that they can diversify more efficiently.
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