This study was designed to examine the application of Monte Carlo simulation to analyse vote counts from the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria. The study adopted a simulation approach and the data were simulated using the R programming language. The actual and simulated data were analysed using frequency and percentage distribution as well as Spearman Rank Correlation tests. Findings revealed that the vote counts for People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the 2011 presidential elections as well as vote counts for All Progressives Congress (APC) and PDP in the 2015 presidential elections do not conform to the distributional pattern of the respective simulated vote counts. A manipulation-free data generating process is expected to produce vote counts that are close to a random distribution. The study recommends the use of forensic analysis by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for future electoral reform in Nigeria.
Nigeria presently runs a presidential system of government and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is saddled with the responsibility of conducting elections, every four years. A fraud-free and credible election is a necessary ingredient to the growth of democracy. However, election fraud has become a major challenge in the Nigerian political system. Till date, reports show that elections in Nigeria have been marred with vote buying, falsification of results, underage voting, and the use of security forces to intimidate voters, among others. Hence, the authors suggest the need for transparency in the voting process and in the collation of results. There is also a need for an electoral reform to address the issue of electronic voting and electronic transmission of results. Electronic voting should be supported and encouraged by all stakeholders. The INEC, executive and legislative arms of government are advised to work in tandem to provide credible electoral process and improve on the conducts of elections in Nigeria. The chapter concludes with suggestion on the possibility of adopting election forensic techniques to address anomalies in Nigeria electoral results. The authors believe that this chapter contribution will be of great benefit to Nigeria and Africa as a whole.
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