As global value chains (GVCs) account for 80% of global trade, the revival of protectionism, amidst the looming trade tensions between United States and other trading partners, particularly China will dampen the international input–output relations. By using a multi-regional and multi-sectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this study analyses China driven GVCs. The study explores the impact of tariff change on China and its major trading partners on economic variables like consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports and sectors like electronic goods, coal, crude oil and machine equipment for the five-year period, that is, 2021–2025. GTAP 10 database has been used. The findings of the study suggest that although China’s dominance may diminish, yet it would continue to be one of the prominent players in GVC. Further, based on the results, the global economy can look forward to fragmented and locally oriented supply chains. At the sectoral level, the shorter supply chains would lead a further disjoint global trade system with a wider range of suppliers for similar products and hence increased regionalisation of production. JEL Codes: F10, F17, F60, F16, D58
This study examines the economic impacts of COVID-19-related school closures in the primary, secondary, and tertiary levels along with the implications to future labor productivity in Asia and the Pacific. School closures due to COVID-19 created substantial disruptions in education, and this will impact the skills of students and their productivity when they mature as professionals. This study examines medium- and long-term economic impacts of COVID-19-related school closures using the Global Trade Analysis Project or GTAP. It also evaluates the labor productivity effect per year of schooling loss due to the pandemic.
India has set an ambitious export target of US$0.5 trillion by 2025 and US$1 trillion by 2030 from US$291 billion in 2021 as part of its Atmanirbhar Bharat campaign. Since India opened up its economy in 1991, India has concluded several bilateral and regional free trade agreements. India signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the United Arab Emirates in February 2022 and Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) with Australia in April 2022. India is in the process of concluding trade agreements with the UK, the European Union, Canada, Israel and GCC countries. This article estimates the impact of all the above mentioned FTAs on India’s GDP and its components with an increased emphasis on its exports using a computable general equilibrium framework and machine learning techniques. The analysis estimates that the FTAs will boost India’s GDP by 4.10% to add US$109.096 billion in 2030 and the exports increase by 16.73% or US$46.08 billion. The exports from India to UAE, Australia, UK, European Union, Canada, Israel and GCC countries are estimated to increase by US$67.312 billion by 2030. This increase is relatively higher than the increase in aggregate exports of India suggesting a trade diversion from countries that are not part of the FTAs toward the seven countries with which India is anticipated to sign an FTA.
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