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AIMTo determine the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the impact of HCC surveillance on early diagnosis and survival of cirrhotic outpatients.METHODSIn this retrospective cohort study, cirrhotic outpatients undergoing HCC surveillance between March 2005 and March 2014 were analyzed. Exclusion criteria were HIV coinfection; previous organ transplantation; diagnosis of HCC at first consultation; missing data in the medical chart; and less than 1 year of follow-up. Surveillance was carried out every six months using ultrasound and serum alpha-fetoprotein determination. Ten-year cumulative incidence and survival were estimated through Kaplan-Meier analysis.RESULTSFour hundred and fifty-three patients were enrolled, of which 57.6% were male. Mean age was 55 years. Hepatitis C virus and heavy use of alcohol were the main etiologic agents of cirrhosis. HCC was diagnosed in 75 patients (16.6%), with an estimated cumulative incidence of 2.6% in the 1st year, 15.4% in the 5th year, and 28.8% in the 10th year. Median survival was estimated at 17.6 mo in HCC patients compared to 234 mo in non-HCC patients (P < 0.001). Early-stage HCC was more often detected in patients who underwent surveillance every 6 mo or less (P = 0.05). However, survival was not different between patients with early stage vs non-early stage tumors [HR = 0.54 (0.15-1.89), P = 0.33].CONCLUSIONHCC is a frequent complication in patients with cirrhosis and adherence to surveillance programs favors early diagnosis.

Patients with cirrhosis monitored on an outpatient basis, despite showing a reasonable survival rate, have a worse prognosis when the etiology of liver disease is related to hepatitis C virus and when they have hepatocellular carcinoma or hypoalbuminemia.

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