River discharge quantity is highly depended on rainfall and initial condition of river discharge; hence, the river discharge has auto-correlation relationships. This study used Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model for analysing the relationship between rainfall and river discharge variables. VAR model was selected by considering the nature of the relationship between rainfall and river discharge as well as the types of rainfall and discharge data, which are in form of time series data. This research was conducted by using daily rainfall and river discharge data obtained from three weirs, namely Sojomerto and Juwero, in Kendal Regency and Glapan in Demak Regency, Central Java Province. Result of the causality tests shows significant relationship of both variables, those on the influence of rainfall to river discharge as well as the influence of river discharge to rainfall variables. The significance relationships of river discharge to rainfall indicate that the rainfall in this area has moved downstream. In addition, the form of VAR model could explain the variety of the relationships ranging between 6.4% -70.1%. These analyses could be improved by using rainfall and river discharge time series data measured in shorter time interval but in longer period. Keywords: rainfall, river discharge, VAR AbstrakBesar kecilnya debit sungai sangat tergantung pada hujan dan kondisi awal dari debit itu sendiri, sehingga terdapat hubungan auto-correlation. Sementara itu, proses pengalihragaman dari hujan menjadi debit aliran pada sungai membutuhkan waktu (lag) antara terjadinya hujan dan kenaikan debit sungai. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Vector Auto Regression (VAR) untuk menganalisis hubungan antara curah hujan dan debit. Model VAR dipilih dengan mempertimbangkan bentuk hubungan antara kedua variabel dan tipe data hujan maupun debit yang keduanya merupakan data deret waktu (time series). Data curah hujan dan data debit harian diperoleh dari tiga bendung yaitu Bendung Sojomerto, Bendung Juwero di Kabupaten Kendal dan Bendung Glapan di Kabupaten Demak, Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Hasil uji kausalitas menunjukkan hubungan yang signifikan baik antara pengaruh variabel curah hujan terhadap debit maupun pengaruh debit terhadap curah hujan. Hubungan kausalitas yang signifikan antara debit terhadap curah hujan mengindikasikan bahwa karakteristik hujan di wilayah ini bergeser dari hulu ke hilir. Model VAR yang terbentuk dapat menjelaskan keragaman hubungan antara kedua variabel antara 6,4% -70,1%. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model statistik berpeluang digunakan dalam peramalan hubungan hujan dan debit sungai. Analisis ini dapat dipertajam dengan menggunakan data deret waktu pada interval waktu yang lebih rapat dan periode yang lebih panjang.Kata Kunci: hujan, debit sungai, VAR.
Juwana Catchment and Logung Sub-catchment in particular has been suffering several major past flood events with significant loss. This study conducted an assessment of flood risk by using OpenLISEM as physical soil and hydrological model to generate the single storm flash flood occurrences. The physical input data were collected from remote sensing image interpretation, field observation and measurement and literature review. There are three return periods chosen as scenarios that represent rainfall intensity in Logung Sub-Catchment. Model validation was done by adjusting initial moisture content and saturated hydraulic conductivity values to equate the calculated total discharge with the measured total discharge in several chosen dates. The results show increases in most of modeled hydrological parameter with respect to increasing of rainfall intensity. Abstrak Juwana DAS dan Logung Sub-DAS khususnya telah menderita beberapa peristiwa banjir masa utama dengan kerugian yang signifikan. Penelitian ini dilakukan penilaian terhadap risiko banjir dengan menggunakan OpenLISEM sebagai tanah fisik dan model hidrologi untuk menghasilkan badai tunggal kejadian banjir bandang. Input data fisik yang dikumpulkan dari interpretasi citra penginderaan jauh, observasi lapangan dan pengukuran dan kajian literatur. Ada tiga periode ulang terpilih sebagai skenario yang mewakili intensitas curah hujan di Logung Sub-DAS. Validasi model dilakukan dengan menyesuaikan kadar air awal dan nilai-nilai konduktivitas hidrolik jenuh menyamakan total debit dihitung dengan total debit diukur beberapa tanggal yang dipilih dalam. Hasilnya menunjukkan peningkatan di sebagian besar parameter hidrologi dimodelkan sehubungan dengan meningkatnya intensitas curah hujan.
Geographically, Indonesia has been subjected towards various climate change related phenomena. This research aim at evaluation of participatory implementation towards climate change related policy which has been set in Indonesia. The research method derived from qualitative framework developed by UNESCO. The research took RAN-API or National Action Plan upon Climate Change Adaptation which has been established since 2013. The document has been integrated within National Medium Term Plan launched at 2015 up to 2019. The research revealed that participation has been inclusive to many stakeholder involved within climate change adaptation program. Furthermore, encouragement needs to be carried out at all level especially in urbanized area. Local to national government has pivotal role to introduce many activities engaged to climate change adaptation. At different array, the research also revealed that many participation has been initiated independently by non-government organization as well as local stakeholder which need to be documented in order to ensure its merits.
This research aims at development of Participatory Evacuation Map Making (PEMM) for Kotagede, YogyakartaIndonesia. The research area is one of an important cultural heritage sites in Indonesia which is subjected towards earthquake hazard. The preliminary observation revealed that the area is a densely populated area, which characterized by dense wooden building structure, narrow street and minimum information of evacuation route which increase their vulnerability potentials. This leads to the idea of developing the PEMM to improve their awareness and preparedness during disaster events and creates sustainable condition for local livelihood security. The method develops within this research is actually a lesson learn from Ritsumeikan University, that has developed CSR for integration disaster management into heritage sites at Kyoto Prefecture. Their CSR covers several activities such as developing disaster information via vending machine and tourism map. Since Yogyakarta and Kyoto are engaged in "Sister City Development Program", hereafter Universitas Gadjah Mada tries to do similar thing. Map making is an alternative prior to community experience in map making is rather frequent compare to vending machine habit. The preliminary finding of this research indicates that the Kotagede community has been involved in several map making activity, such as "Green Map" and "Rehabilitation Sites Map". However, they have not yet any experience to create any map which includes information such as evacuation route, fire extinguisher, shelter information center and important meeting points. An improved critics from this research is to include meeting points level. As we all aware off, each meeting point have significant carrying capacity, thereby in the future a research on similar topics should add level and or category of meeting points. This is an important steppingstone for the research to conduct further research.Keywords: participatory, evacuation, urban, heritage, Yogyakarta AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengupayakan pembuatan peta evakuasi partisipatif untuk Kotagede, Yogyakarta -Indonesia. Wilayah penelitian merupakan salah satu kawasan pusaka di Indonesia yang rawan terhadap ancaman gempa bumi. Hasil pengamatan lapangan yang dilakukan pada awal penelitian menunjukkan bahwa wilayah penelitian terdiri dari kawasan padat hunian, yang didominasi oleh bangunan berstruktur kayu, terletak di antara lorong yang sempit dan memiliki informasi yang minimum terhadap rute evakuasi sehingga meningkatkan potensi kerentanan masyarakatnya. Kondisi ini merujuk pada ide penelitian yaitu membuat suatu peta evakuasi partisipatif untuk meningkatkan kesiapsiagaan dan kewaspadaan saat kondisi krisis, dan mendukung kondisi yang berkelanjutan bagi penghidupan masyarakat. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan salah satu pembelajaran "CSR" Universitas Ritsumeikan yang dikembangkan untuk diintegrasikan dalam penanggulangan bencana di kawasan pusaka Kota Kyoto. Metode "CSR" yang dikembangkan memiliki beberapa jenis a...
The objective of the research was to analyse probability of lahar flows occurrence in Muntilan urban area, Central Java. By using integrated methods, which involve the numerical simulation program, Geographic Information System (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS) and field verification to produce lahar flows Hazard Map and Risk Map. Muntilan urban area located at western flank of Merapi volcano, and in down stream of Lamat river. The river is Lahar River that is endangering from Merapi volcano, which flowing down to cuts a cross of that area. Therefore, Muntilan urban area is vulnerable area from lahar flows disaster. Lahar flows, generally occur during intense rainfall on saturated volcanic deposit in upper stream of river or wall of volcano. Lahar flows are extremely dangerous especially to those living in valley areas near a volcano, which can undercut banks and cause houses destruction situated on the banks, and can bury and destroy resident, structures, infrastructure facilities including roads and bridges. Meanwhile, development of Muntilan urban area that caused many illegal settlements appears surrounding that area. Occasionally, un-benefit people constructing house in disaster prone area, such as down stream of river side that have lahar flows risk. The research was concluded that lahar flow occurrence in 100 years return period will be buried the Muntilan urban area. With the methods integrating of GIS, RS, field verification can be done analysing of lahar flows hazard map, and risks map to produce risk assessment in Muntilan urban area. Abstrak Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis kemungkinan terjadinya aliran lahar di perkotaan Muntilan , Jawa Tengah. Metode penelitian ini merupakan metode terpadu dengan melibatkan program simulasi numerik, Sistem Informasi Geografis (SIG), Penginderaan Jauh (PJ) dan verifikasi lapangan untuk menghasilkan Peta Bahaya dan Peta Risiko aliran lahar. Daerah perkotaan Muntilan terletak di sisi barat Gunung
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