The present paper provides a comparative evaluation of hybrid Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) against conventional ANN, applied on real time intraday traffic volume forecasting. The main research objective was to assess the applicability and functionality of intraday traffic volume forecasting, based on toll station measurements. The proposed methodology was implemented and evaluated upon a custom developed forecasting software toolbox, based on the software Mathworks MatLab, by using real data from Iasmos-Greece toll station. Experimental results demonstrated a superior ex post forecasting accuracy of the proposed hybrid forecasting methodology against conventional ANN, when compared to performance of usual statistical criteria (Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, Root Mean Squared Error, Coefficient of Determination R2, Theil's inequality coefficient). The obtained results revealed that the hybrid model could advance forecasting accuracy of a conventional ANN model in intraday traffic volume forecasting, while embedding hybrid forecasting algorithm in an Intelligent Transport System could provide an advanced decision support module for transportation system maintenance, operation and management.
The paper delivers an assessment of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) forecasting ability for short- and medium-term forecasting horizon, on real time traffic volume data. The key study goal is to estimate forecasting pertinency for daily traffic volume, based upon measurements at toll station. The suggested methodology is tested on real data from Moschohorion and Pelasgia Toll Station – Greece, utilizing custom developed forecasting software toolbox. Applied research results confirm an advanced forecasting ability of proposed methodology for short-term forecasting horizon against medium term forecasting horizon, when performance is compared upon the statistical criteria of the coefficient of determination R2. The obtained results present that SSA forecasting model could provide a competent forecasting methodology for road traffic volume data.
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