Aim To quantify the impact of the 2019–2020 megafires on Australian plant diversity by assessing burnt area across 26,062 species ranges and the effects of fire history on recovery potential. Further, to exemplify a strategic approach to prioritizing plant species affected by fire for recovery actions and conservation planning at a national scale. Location Australia. Methods We combine data on geographic range, fire extent, response traits and fire history to assess the proportion of species ranges burnt in both the 2019–2020 fires and the past. Results Across Australia, suitable habitat for 69% of all plant species was burnt (17,197 species) by the 2019–2020 fires and herbarium specimens confirm the presence of 9,092 of these species across the fire extent since 1950. Burnt ranges include those of 587 plants listed as threatened under national legislation (44% of Australia's threatened plants). A total of 3,998 of the 17,197 fire‐affected species are known to resprout after fire, but at least 2,928 must complete their entire life cycle—from germinant to reproducing adult—prior to subsequent fires, as they are killed by fire. Data on previous fires show that, for 257 species, the historical intervals between fire events across their range are likely too short to allow regeneration. For a further 411 species, future fires during recovery will increase extinction risk as current populations are dominated by immature individuals. Main conclusion Many Australian plant species have strategies to persist under certain fire regimes, and will recover given time, suitable conditions and low exposure to threats. However, short fire intervals both before and after the 2019–2020 fire season pose a serious risk to the recovery of at least 595 species. Persistent knowledge gaps about species fire response and post‐fire population persistence threaten the effective long‐term management of Australian vegetation in an increasingly pyric world.

No abstract

The IUCN Red List criteria are a globally accepted method of assessing species extinction risk, and countries around the world are adapting these criteria for domestic use. First, we compared trends in IUCN Red List criteria used in threatened plant species listings in Australia and globally. Second, using the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, as a study region, we conducted two complementary analyses: (1) An assessment of ~ 5000 currently unlisted NSW plant species against the thresholds for the geographic range criterion (Criterion B) to identify species which may require full assessment; and (2) A rapid assessment of currently listed threatened plant species, applying the IUCN Red List Critically Endangered thresholds for all criteria, to identify species likely to be at the highest risk of extinction from further decline. Impacts on these species could be considered to be "serious and irreversible impacts" (SAII). Geographic range size was the most common criterion used in Australia and globally for plant listings. Our assessment of unlisted NSW plant species revealed 92 species (75 endemic to NSW) met the geographic range thresholds for Critically Endangered. Our rapid assessments of currently listed NSW threatened plant species identified 53.5% as having an extremely high risk of extinction should further decline occur. Of these, most were flagged under Criterion B (88.8%). Geographic range and the other IUCN Red List criteria thresholds for Critically Endangered provide a useful framework to identify species at an extremely high risk of extinction from ongoing decline.

We introduce the AusTraits database - a compilation of measurements of plant traits for taxa in the Australian flora (hereafter AusTraits). AusTraits synthesises data on 375 traits across 29230 taxa from field campaigns, published literature, taxonomic monographs, and individual taxa descriptions. Traits vary in scope from physiological measures of performance (e.g. photosynthetic gas exchange, water-use efficiency) to morphological parameters (e.g. leaf area, seed mass, plant height) which link to aspects of ecological variation. AusTraits contains curated and harmonised individual-, species- and genus-level observations coupled to, where available, contextual information on site properties. This data descriptor provides information on version 2.1.0 of AusTraits which contains data for 937243 trait-by-taxa combinations. We envision AusTraits as an ongoing collaborative initiative for easily archiving and sharing trait data to increase our collective understanding of the Australian flora.

No abstract

Vegetation is composed of many individual species whose climatic tolerances can be integrated into spatial analyses of climate change risk. Here, we quantify climate change risk to vegetation at a continental scale by calculating the safety margins for warming and drying ( i . e ., tolerance to projected change in temperature and precipitation respectively) across plants sharing 100 km × 100 km grid cells (locations). These safety margins measure how much warmer, or drier, a location could become before its ‘typical’ species exceeds its observed climatic limit. We also analyse the potential adaptive capacity of vegetation to temperature and precipitation change ( i . e ., likelihood of in situ persistence) using median precipitation and temperature breadth across all species in each location. 47% of vegetation across Australia is potentially at risk from increases in mean annual temperature (MAT) by 2070, with tropical regions most vulnerable. Vegetation at high risk from climate change often also exhibited low adaptive capacity. By contrast, 2% of the continent is at risk from reductions in annual precipitation by 2070. Risk from precipitation change was isolated to the southwest of Western Australia where both the safety margin for drier conditions in the typical species is low, and substantial reductions in MAP are projected.

We introduce the AusTraits database - a compilation of values of plant traits for taxa in the Australian flora (hereafter AusTraits). AusTraits synthesises data on 448 traits across 28,640 taxa from field campaigns, published literature, taxonomic monographs, and individual taxon descriptions. Traits vary in scope from physiological measures of performance (e.g. photosynthetic gas exchange, water-use efficiency) to morphological attributes (e.g. leaf area, seed mass, plant height) which link to aspects of ecological variation. AusTraits contains curated and harmonised individual- and species-level measurements coupled to, where available, contextual information on site properties and experimental conditions. This article provides information on version 3.0.2 of AusTraits which contains data for 997,808 trait-by-taxon combinations. We envision AusTraits as an ongoing collaborative initiative for easily archiving and sharing trait data, which also provides a template for other national or regional initiatives globally to fill persistent gaps in trait knowledge.

The impacts of climate change on future river flows are a growing concern. Typically, impacts are simulated by driving hydrological models with climate model ensemble data. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provided probabilistic projections, enabling a risk-based approach to decision-making under climate change. Recently, an update was released-UKCP18-so there is a need for information on how impacts may differ. The probabilistic projections from UKCP18 and UKCP09 are here applied using the change factor method with catchment-based hydrological modelling for 10 catchments across England. Projections of changes in median, mean, high, and low flows are made for the 2050s, using the A1B emissions scenario from UKCP09 and UKCP18 as well as the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios from UCKP18. The results show that, in all catchments for all flow measures, the central estimate of change under UKCP18 is similar to that from UKCP09 (A1B emissions).However, the probabilistic uncertainty ranges from UKCP18 are, in all cases, greater than from UKCP09, despite UKCP18 having a smaller ensemble size than UKCP09.Although there are differences between the central estimates of change using UKCP18 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and A1B emissions, there is considerable overlap in the uncertainty ranges. The results suggest that existing assessments of hydrological impacts remain relevant, though it will be necessary to evaluate sensitive decisions using the latest projections. The analysis will aid development of advice to users of current guidance based on UKCP09 and help make decisions about the prioritization of further hydrological impacts work using UKCP18, which should also apply other products from UKCP18 like the 12-km regional data. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change, hydrological impacts, probabilistic projections, rainfall-runoff, UK Climate Projections 2018, UKCP09, UKCP18