Abstract. The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the main atmospheric oxidant and the primary sink of the greenhouse gas CH4. In an attempt to constrain atmospheric levels of OH, two recent studies combined a tropospheric two-box model with hemispheric-mean observations of methyl chloroform (MCF) and CH4. These studies reached different conclusions concerning the most likely explanation of the renewed CH4 growth rate, which reflects the uncertain and underdetermined nature of the problem. Here, we investigated how the use of a tropospheric two-box model can affect the derived constraints on OH due to simplifying assumptions inherent to a two-box model. To this end, we derived species- and time-dependent quantities from a full 3-D transport model to drive two-box model simulations. Furthermore, we quantified differences between the 3-D simulated tropospheric burden and the burden seen by the surface measurement network of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Compared to commonly used parameters in two-box models, we found significant deviations in the magnitude and time-dependence of the interhemispheric exchange rate, exposure to OH, and stratospheric loss rate. For MCF these deviations can be large due to changes in the balance of its sources and sinks over time. We also found that changes in the yearly averaged tropospheric burden of CH4 and MCF can be obtained within 0.96 ppb yr−1 and 0.14 % yr−1 by the NOAA surface network, but that substantial systematic biases exist in the interhemispheric mixing ratio gradients that are input to two-box model inversions. To investigate the impact of the identified biases on constraints on OH, we accounted for these biases in a two-box model inversion of MCF and CH4. We found that the sensitivity of interannual OH anomalies to the biases is modest (1 %–2 %), relative to the uncertainties on derived OH (3 %–4 %). However, in an inversion where we implemented all four bias corrections simultaneously, we found a shift to a positive trend in OH concentrations over the 1994–2015 period, compared to the standard inversion. Moreover, the absolute magnitude of derived global mean OH, and by extent, that of global CH4 emissions, was affected much more strongly by the bias corrections than their anomalies (∼10 %). Through our analysis, we identified and quantified limitations in the two-box model approach as well as an opportunity for full 3-D simulations to address these limitations. However, we also found that this derivation is an extensive and species-dependent exercise and that the biases were not always entirely resolvable. In future attempts to improve constraints on the atmospheric oxidative capacity through the use of simple models, a crucial first step is to consider and account for biases similar to those we have identified for the two-box model.

• High-quality measurements of CH 3 CCl 3 from two independent measurement networks provide key information about tropospheric OH variability • We separate effects of the "physical" climate on inverse lifetime of CH 3 CCl 3 (K G) from those arising from "chemical" changes in the atmosphere • Robust variability in K G , correlating with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, has large implications, e.g., for the global methane budget

Abstract. Variations in the atmospheric oxidative capacity, largely determined by variations in the hydroxyl radical (OH), form a key uncertainty in many greenhouse and other pollutant budgets, such as that of methane (CH4). Methyl chloroform (MCF) is an often-adopted tracer to indirectly put observational constraints on large-scale variations in OH. We investigated the budget of MCF in a 4DVAR inversion using the atmospheric transport model TM5, for the period 1998–2018, with the objective to derive information on large-scale, interannual variations in atmospheric OH concentrations. While our main inversion did not fully converge, we did derive interannual variations in the global oxidation of MCF that bring simulated mole fractions of MCF within 1 %–2 % of the assimilated observations from the NOAA-GMD surface network at most sites. Additionally, the posterior simulations better reproduce aircraft observations used for independent validation compared to the prior simulations. The derived OH variations showed robustness with respect to the prior MCF emissions and the prior OH distribution over the 1998 to 2008 period. Although we find a rapid 8 % increase in global mean OH concentrations between 2010 and 2012 that quickly declines afterwards, the derived interannual variations were typically small (< 3 %/yr), with no significant long-term trend in global mean OH concentrations. The inverse system found strong adjustments to the latitudinal distribution of OH, relative to widely used prior distributions, with systematic increases in tropical and decreases in extra-tropical OH concentrations (both up to 30 %). These spatial adjustments were driven by intrahemispheric biases in simulated MCF mole fractions, which have not been identified in previous studies. Given the large amplitude of these adjustments, which exceeds spread between literature estimates, and a residual bias in the MCF intrahemispheric gradients, we suggest a reversal in the extratropical ocean sink of MCF in response to declining atmospheric MCF abundance (as hypothesized in Wennberg et al., 2004). This ocean source provides a more realistic explanation for the biases, possibly complementary to adjustments in the OH distribution. We identified significant added value in the use of a 3D transport model, since it implicitly accounts for variable transport and optimizes the observed spatial gradients of MCF, which is not possible in simpler models. However, we also found a trade-off in computational expense and convergence problems. Despite these convergence problems, the derived OH variations do result in an improved match with MCF observations relative to an interannually repeating prior for OH. Therefore, we consider that variations in OH derived from MCF inversions with 3D models can add value to budget studies of long-lived gases like CH4.

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