Over the past three decades the literature on financial distress prediction has largely been confined to simple multiple discriminant analysis, binary logistic or probit analysis, or rudimentary multinomial logit models (MNL). There has been a conspicuous absence of modeling innovation in this literature as well as a failure to keep abreast of important methodological developments emerging in other fields of the social sciences. In particular, there has been no recognition of major advances in discrete choice modeling over the last 15 years, which has increasingly relaxed behaviorally questionable assumptions associated with the independently and identically distributed errors (IID) condition and allowed for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. In contrast to standard logit, the mixed logit model fulfils this purpose and provides a superior framework for explanation and prediction. We explain the theoretical and econometric underpinnings of mixed logit and demonstrate its empirical usefulness in the context of a specific but topical area of accounting research: financial distress prediction. Comparisons of model-fits and out-of-sample forecasts indicate that mixed logit outperforms standard logit by significant margins. While mixed logit has valuable applications in financial distress research, its potential usefulness in other areas of accounting research should not be overlooked.
Corporate bankruptcy prediction has attracted significant research attention from business academics, regulators and financial economists over the past five decades. However, much of this literature has relied on quite simplistic classifiers such as logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Based on a large sample of US corporate bankruptcies, we examine the predictive performance of 16 classifiers, ranging from the most restrictive classifiers (such as logit, probit and linear discriminant analysis) to more advanced techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines (SVMs) and "new age" statistical learning models including generalised boosting, AdaBoost and random forests. Consistent with the findings of Jones et al. (2015), we show that quite simple classifiers such as logit and LDA perform reasonably well in bankruptcy prediction. However, we recommend the use of "new age" classifiers in corporate bankruptcy modelling because: (1) they predict significantly better than all other classifiers on both the cross-sectional and longitudinal test samples; (2) the models may have considerable practical appeal because they are relatively easy to estimate and implement (for instance, they require minimal researcher intervention for data preparation, variable selection and model architecture specification); and (3) while the underlying model structures can be very complex, we demonstrate that "new age" classifiers have a reasonably good level of interpretability through such metrics as relative variable importances (RVIs).
This study examines the nature and extent of sustainability reporting practices in the various reporting media used by companies listed on the ASX (annual reports, discrete reports and websites). The sustainability reporting practices of the sample are compared with key indicators outlined in the GRI framework. The annual report is found to be the least valuable source of information on corporate sustainability in terms of the number of indicators observed and the diversity of the information provided. The discrete reports and websites provide greater levels of information on sustainability; however the overall levels of disclosure are generally low.
The relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate financial performance (CFP) has been the subject of intensive research. However, limitations with this literature include the use of localised samples, poorly specified control variables and self-constructed CSR disclosure measures that may not represent a firm’s actual CSR performance. Answering the call for ‘better’ CSR research in this field, as well as extending research to a cross-country analysis, this study examines the relationship between corporate CSR engagement (measured by diversity in voluntary disclosure practices) and financial performance across three reporting jurisdictions: Australia, Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. We use the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) framework to rate companies on their CSR engagement and control for actual CSR performance using the Vigeo-Eiris CSR sustainability ratings as the proxy measure. Based on a sample of 116 large public companies, we find evidence that CSR engagement can be indicative of actual CSR performance. We also find evidence of a significant relationship between CSR engagement and financial performance, even after controlling for the CSR performance proxy, firm size, industry-level fixed effects, financial risk and type of assurer. The results appear to be robust across national reporting jurisdictions and alternative CSR metrics constructed from the CSR engagement measure. JEL classification: M41, M14
The importance of sustainability reporting to external stakeholders is reflected in the advent of various reporting guidelines and government inquiries. However, evidence of the inadequacy of such reporting, coupled with limited evidence of its use by market participants (such as investors and creditors) for resource‐allocation decisions, raises questions about the overall value‐relevance of sustainability reporting. This study seeks to identify, in the Australian context, whether the level of sustainable reporting is associated with a range of financial and market performance attributes of the firm.
This study reports the findings of a structured telephone survey on adoption of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) from 60 firms drawn from among Australia's top 200 corporations. Although we find evidence of strong systematic variation in survey responses with factors such as firm size, industry background and expected impacts on financial performance, the general results indicate that many respondents have not been well prepared for the transition and are generally very sceptical about the claimed benefits of IFRS as enunciated in the government's Corporate Law Economic Reform Program. The results have implications to other international reporting jurisdictions, particularly the European Union, where adoption of IFRS is already underway. Copyright (c) The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2006 AFAANZ.
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