We consider the problem of neural network training in a time-varying context.Machine learning algorithms have excelled in problems that do not change over time.However, problems encountered in financial markets are often time varying. We propose the online early stopping algorithm and show that a neural network trained using this algorithm can track a function changing with unknown dynamics. We compare the proposed algorithm to current approaches on predicting monthly US stock returns and show its superiority. We also show that prominent factors (such as the size and momentum effects) and industry indicators exhibit time-varying predictive power on stock returns. We find that during market distress, industry indicators experience an increase in importance at the expense of firm level features. This indicates that industries play a role in explaining stock returns during periods of heightened risk.
We consider the problem of neural network training in a timevarying context. Machine learning algorithms have excelled in problems that do not change over time. However, problems encountered in financial markets are often non-stationary. We propose the online early stopping algorithm and show that a neural network trained using this algorithm can track a function changing with unknown dynamics. We apply the proposed algorithm to the stock return prediction problem studied in Gu et al. (2019) and achieve mean rank correlation of 4.69 %, almost twice as high as the expanding window approach of Gu et al. (2019). We also show that prominent factors, such as the size effect (W. Banz, 1981) and momentum (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), exhibit time varying stock return predictiveness.
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