Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are an expressive means of representing and reasoning about probabilistic models. The computational challenge of probabilistic inference remains the primary roadblock for applying PPLs in practice. Inference is fundamentally hard, so there is no one-size-fits all solution. In this work, we target scalable inference for an important class of probabilistic programs: those whose probability distributions are discrete . Discrete distributions are common in many fields, including text analysis, network verification, artificial intelligence, and graph analysis, but they prove to be challenging for existing PPLs. We develop a domain-specific probabilistic programming language called Dice that features a new approach to exact discrete probabilistic program inference. Dice exploits program structure in order to factorize inference, enabling us to perform exact inference on probabilistic programs with hundreds of thousands of random variables. Our key technical contribution is a new reduction from discrete probabilistic programs to weighted model counting (WMC). This reduction separates the structure of the distribution from its parameters, enabling logical reasoning tools to exploit that structure for probabilistic inference. We (1) show how to compositionally reduce Dice inference to WMC, (2) prove this compilation correct with respect to a denotational semantics, (3) empirically demonstrate the performance benefits over prior approaches, and (4) analyze the types of structure that allow Dice to scale to large probabilistic programs.
This paper presents a method which allows robots to infer a human's hierarchical intent from partially observed RGBD videos by imagining how the human will behave in the future. This capability is critical for creating robots which can interact socially or collaboratively with humans. We represent intent as a novel hierarchical, compositional, and probabilistic And-Or graph structure which describes a relationship between actions and plans. We infer human intent by reverseengineering a human's decision-making and action planning processes under a Bayesian probabilistic programming framework. We present experiments from a 3D environment which demonstrate that the inferred human intent (1) matches well with human judgment, and (2) provides useful contextual cues for object tracking and action recognition.
We revisit the symbolic verification of Markov chains with respect to finite horizon reachability properties. The prevalent approach iteratively computes step-bounded state reachability probabilities. By contrast, recent advances in probabilistic inference suggest symbolically representing all horizon-length paths through the Markov chain. We ask whether this perspective advances the state-of-the-art in probabilistic model checking. First, we formally describe both approaches in order to highlight their key differences. Then, using these insights we develop Rubicon, a tool that transpiles Prism models to the probabilistic inference tool . Finally, we demonstrate better scalability compared to probabilistic model checkers on selected benchmarks. All together, our results suggest that probabilistic inference is a valuable addition to the probabilistic model checking portfolio, with Rubicon as a first step towards integrating both perspectives.
We present Lilac, a separation logic for reasoning about probabilistic programs where separating conjunction captures probabilistic independence. Inspired by an analogy with mutable state where sampling corresponds to dynamic allocation, we show how probability spaces over a fixed, ambient sample space appear to be the natural analogue of heap fragments, and present a new combining operation on them such that probability spaces behave like heaps and measurability of random variables behaves like ownership. This combining operation forms the basis for our model of separation, and produces a logic with many pleasant properties. In particular, Lilac has a frame rule identical to the ordinary one, and naturally accommodates advanced features like continuous random variables and reasoning about quantitative properties of programs. Then we propose a new modality based on disintegration theory for reasoning about conditional probability. We show how the resulting modal logic validates examples from prior work, and give a formal verification of an intricate weighted sampling algorithm whose correctness depends crucially on conditional independence structure.
ion is a fundamental tool for reasoning about complex systems. Program abstraction has been utilized to great effect for analyzing deterministic programs. At the heart of program abstraction is the relationship between a concrete program, which is difficult to analyze, and an abstract program, which is more tractable. Program abstractions, however, are typically not probabilistic. We generalize non-deterministic program abstractions to probabilistic program abstractions by explicitly quantifying the non-deterministic choices. Our framework upgrades key definitions and properties of abstractions to the probabilistic context. We also discuss preliminary ideas for performing inference on probabilistic abstractions and general probabilistic programs.
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