Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) are in a unique position to influence environmental decision-making in the context of sustainability challenges. To do this effectively, however, new methods are needed to respond to the needs of decision-makers for a more integrated, contextualized and goal-seeking evaluation of different policies, geared for action from global to local. While scenarios are an important tool for GEAs to link short-term decisions and medium and long-term consequences, these current information needs cannot be met only through deductive approaches focused on the global level. In this paper, we argue that a more diverse set of futures tools operating at multiple scales are needed to improve GEA scenario development and analysis to meet the information needs of policymakers and other stakeholders better. Based on the literature, we highlight four challenges that GEAs need to be able to address in order to contribute to global environmental decision-making about the future: 1. anticipate unpredictable future conditions; 2. be relevant at multiple scales, 3. include diverse actors, perspectives and contexts; and 4. leverage the imagination to inspire action. We present a toolbox of future-oriented approaches and methods that can be used to effectively address the four challenges currently faced by GEAs.
Environmental Affairs, Edna Molewa, was succinct in her summary: 'The situation currently in South Africa is that we have 98% of the water in the country being considered "fully allocated". This means that my child and your child that is being born tomorrow has 2% of water for use going into the future.' AFRICAN FUTURES PAPER 11 | SEPTEMBER 2014 Parched prospectsThe emerging water crisis in South AfricaSteve Hedden and Jakkie Cilliers Other demand forecasts Modelling water supply and demandTo forecast South Africa's water sector, Future water supply in South AfricaThis section reviews water supply from surface water, groundwater, water reuse and desalination (see Figure 4). Forecasting the demandsupply gapTo model the NWRS2's ability to close the gap between demand and supply, the authors built a supply forecast that simulates the NWRS2 plans to increase supply utilising the IFs model. Water is therefore a significant constraint on South Africa's development potential and the next section looks at how this gap can be closed. South Africa is rapidly approaching this limit and, in the case of the Orange River, has already passed the limit. Closing the gap UncertaintiesThe demand-supply forecast presented in this paper is not the only possible water-demand scenario for South Africa.There are many uncertainties that will affect both the supply and demand of water resources. In the base case scenario, it is assumed that the levels of exploitable surface and groundwater In line with some of the key messages from the reconciliation strategies laid out in the NWRS2, it is evident that 'South Africa cannot afford to waste any water, anywhere, any more'. 82 More specifically:• Groundwater is important, and currently undervalued and under-used, especially in small-scale rural farming.It may emerge as the most important way in which any expansion in the agricultural sector is possible. The reality is that reallocating some water from irrigation to other use may have to be considered in certain areas.• There is huge potential to increase the reuse of municipal and industrial water at the coast and in inland systems.In addition, wastewater needs to be treated in all water-use sectors, especially in highly contaminating industrial sectors, such as mining.• There is limited opportunity for more dams or transfer schemes, but they are inevitable in certain areas. This option is very expensive.• Due to the high levels of evaporation and transpiration loss in South Africa, the storage of water in aquifers has to be considered as part of future policy or alternative ways need to be found to reduce evaporation.• Expensive desalination projects would have to be considered as an option to increase supply of water, especially in coastal areas with limited alternative sources of supply.• The necessary incentives should be put in place for the transition to a recycling economy, in which water of different quality and price is used for different purposes.• Monitoring and evaluation of the water sector is necessary to set and ...
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.