Four propositions drawn from 60 years of natural hazard and reconstruction research provide a comparative and historical perspective on the reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Decisions taken over its 288-year history that have made New Orleans so vulnerable to Katrina reflect a long-term pattern of societal response to hazard events-reducing consequences to relatively frequent events, and increasing vulnerability to very large and rare events. Thus Katrina's consequences for New Orleans were truly catastrophic-accounting for most of the estimated 1,570 deaths of Louisiana residents and $40 -50 billion in monetary losses. A comparative sequence and timing of recovery provides a calendar of historical experience against which to gauge progress in reconstruction. Using this calendar, the emergency postdisaster period appears to be longer in duration than that of any other studied disaster. The restoration period, the time taken to restore urban services for the smaller population, is in keeping with or ahead of historical experience. The effort to reconstruct the physical environment and urban infrastructure is likely to take 8 -11 years. Conflicting policy goals for reconstruction of rapid recovery, safety, betterment, and equity are already evident. Actions taken demonstrate the rush to rebuild the familiar in contrast to planning efforts that emphasize betterment. Because disasters tend to accelerate existing economic, social, and political trends, the large losses in housing, population, and employment after Katrina are likely to persist and, at best, only partly recover. However, the possibility of breaking free of this gloomy trajectory is feasible and has some historical precedent.

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It has been speculated that future global warming will change the frequency and severity of tropical and extratropical storms. The U.S. east coast is heavily impacted by such storms, so it is important to determine their natural temporal variability for the last century during which global warming has been relatively small. Storm surge data obtained from hourly tide gauge records provide a unique quantitative measure of storm duration and intensity, unlike qualitative estimates based on eyewitness reports or meteorological hindcasts. To demonstrate the potential of storm surge data for climate analysis, the authors have evaluated 10 very long records of water level anomalies. An analysis of the hourly tide gauge records along the U.S. east coast shows a considerable interdecadal variation but no discernible long-term trend in the number and intensity of moderate and severe coastal storms during this century. However, sea level rise over the last century has exacerbated the damage to fixed structures from modern storms that would have been relatively minor a century ago.

Our research has shown that an important relationship exists between sea level rise and sandy beach erosion. The link is highly multiplicative, with the long‐term shoreline retreat rate averaging about 150 times that of sea level rise. For example, a sustained rise of 10 cm in sea level could result in 15 m of shoreline erosion. Such an amount is more than an order of magnitude greater than would be expected from a simple response to sea level rise through inundation of the shoreline. Sea level is certainly only one of many factors causing long‐term beach change. Shoreline revisions from inlet dynamics and coastal engineering projects are more pronounced in most areas of the US. east coast and tend to mask the effect of a rise in sea level even over extended intervals. The implication is that sea level rise is a secondary but inexorable cause of beach erosion in such areas.