The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9 -19% (CO 2-eq. basis) of projected global CO 2 emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6 -13 years of CO 2 emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28 -45% compared with projected CO 2 emissions in a 450-ppm CO2 stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.HCFC consumption ͉ radiative forcing ͉ scenarios

The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a landmark agreement that has successfully reduced the global production, consumption, and emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). ODSs are also greenhouse gases that contribute to the radiative forcing of climate change. Using historical ODSs emissions and scenarios of potential emissions, we show that the ODS contribution to radiative forcing most likely would have been much larger if the ODS link to stratospheric ozone depletion had not been recognized in 1974 and followed by a series of regulations. The climate protection already achieved by the Montreal Protocol alone is far larger than the reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Additional climate benefits that are significant compared with the Kyoto Protocol reduction target could be achieved by actions under the Montreal Protocol, by managing the emissions of substitute fluorocarbon gases and/or implementing alternative gases with lower global warming potentials.Kyoto Protocol ͉ ozone layer ͉ radiative forcing

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We use a regional-scale, three-dimensional atmospheric model to evaluate U.S. air quality effects that would result from replacing HFC-134a in automobile air conditioners in the U.S. with HFO-1234yf. Although HFO-1234yf produces tropospheric ozone, the incremental amount is small, averaging less than 0.01% of total ozone formed during the simulation. We show that this production of ozone could be compensated for by a modest improvement in air conditioner efficiency. Atmospheric decomposition of HFO-1234yf produces trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), which is subject to wet and dry deposition. Deposition and concentrations of TFA are spatially variable due to HFO-1234yf's short atmospheric lifetime, with more localized peaks and less global transport when compared to HFC-134a. Over the 2.5 month simulation, deposition of TFA in the continental U.S. from mobile air conditioners averages 0.24 kg km(-2), substantially higher than previous estimates from all sources of current hydrofluorocarbons. Automobile air conditioning HFO-1234yf emissions are predicted to produce concentrations of TFA in Eastern U.S. rainfall at least double the values currently observed from all sources, natural and man-made. Our model predicts peak concentrations in rainfall of 1264 ng L(-1), a level that is 80x lower than the lowest level considered safe for the most sensitive aquatic organisms.