The pharmaceutical industry remains under huge pressure to address the high attrition rates in drug development. Attempts to reduce the number of efficacy- and safety-related failures by analysing possible links to the physicochemical properties of small-molecule drug candidates have been inconclusive because of the limited size of data sets from individual companies. Here, we describe the compilation and analysis of combined data on the attrition of drug candidates from AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer. The analysis reaffirms that control of physicochemical properties during compound optimization is beneficial in identifying compounds of candidate drug quality and indicates for the first time a link between the physicochemical properties of compounds and clinical failure due to safety issues. The results also suggest that further control of physicochemical properties is unlikely to have a significant effect on attrition rates and that additional work is required to address safety-related failures. Further cross-company collaborations will be crucial to future progress in this area.

Traditional methods for performing 3D-QSAR rely upon an alignment step that is often time-consuming and can introduce user bias, the resultant model being dependent upon and sensitive to the alignment used. There are several methods which overcome this problem, but in general the necessary transformations prevent a simple interpretation of the resultant models in the original descriptor space (i.e. 3D molecular coordinates). Here we present a novel class of molecular descriptors which we have termed GRid-INdependent Descriptors (GRIND). They are derived in such a way as to be highly relevant for describing biological properties of compounds while being alignment-independent, chemically interpretable, and easy to compute. GRIND are obtained starting from a set of molecular interaction fields, computed by the program GRID or by other programs. The procedure for computing the descriptors involves a first step, in which the fields are simplified, and a second step, in which the results are encoded into alignment-independent variables using a particular type of autocorrelation transform. The molecular descriptors so obtained can be used to obtain graphical diagrams called "correlograms" and can be used in different chemometric analyses, such as principal component analysis or partial least-squares. An important feature of GRIND is that, with the use of appropriate software, the original descriptors (molecular interaction fields) can be regenerated from the autocorrelation transform and, thus, the results of the analysis represented graphically, together with the original molecular structures, in 3D plots. In this respect, the article introduces the program ALMOND, a software package developed in our group for the computation, analysis, and interpretation of GRIND. The use of the methodology is illustrated using some examples from the field of 3D-QSAR. Highly predictive and interpretable models are obtained showing the promising potential of the novel descriptors in drug design.

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