We present KnockoffZoom, a flexible method for the genetic mapping of complex traits at multiple resolutions. KnockoffZoom localizes causal variants by testing the conditional associations of genetic segments of decreasing width while provably controlling the false discovery rate using artificial genotypes as negative controls. Our method is equally valid for quantitative and binary phenotypes, making no assumptions about their genetic architectures.Instead, we rely on well-established genetic models of linkage disequilibrium. We demonstrate that our method can detect more associations than mixed effects models and achieve fine-mapping precision, at comparable computational cost. Lastly, we apply KnockoffZoom to data from 350k subjects in the UK Biobank and report many new findings.

The MMI provides a reliable way to assess residency candidates that is acceptable to both candidates and assessors across a variety of programs.

In the statistical analysis of genome-wide association data, it is challenging to precisely localize the variants that affect complex traits, due to linkage disequilibrium, and to maximize power while limiting spurious findings. Here we report on KnockoffZoom: a flexible method that localizes causal variants at multiple resolutions by testing the conditional associations of genetic segments of decreasing width, while provably controlling the false discovery rate. Our method utilizes artificial genotypes as negative controls and is equally valid for quantitative and binary phenotypes, without requiring any assumptions about their genetic architectures. Instead, we rely on well-established genetic models of linkage disequilibrium. We demonstrate that our method can detect more associations than mixed effects models and achieve fine-mapping precision, at comparable computational cost. Lastly, we apply KnockoffZoom to data from 350k subjects in the UK Biobank and report many new findings.

We introduce a method to draw causal inferences—inferences immune to all possible confounding—from genetic data that include parents and offspring. Causal conclusions are possible with these data because the natural randomness in meiosis can be viewed as a high-dimensional randomized experiment. We make this observation actionable by developing a conditional independence test that identifies regions of the genome containing distinct causal variants. The proposed digital twin test compares an observed offspring to carefully constructed synthetic offspring from the same parents to determine statistical significance, and it can leverage any black-box multivariate model and additional nontrio genetic data to increase power. Crucially, our inferences are based only on a well-established mathematical model of recombination and make no assumptions about the relationship between the genotypes and phenotypes. We compare our method to the widely used transmission disequilibrium test and demonstrate enhanced power and localization.

While improving prediction accuracy has been the focus of machine learning in recent years, this alone does not suffice for reliable decision-making. Deploying learning systems in consequential settings also requires calibrating and communicating the uncertainty of predictions. To convey instance-wise uncertainty for prediction tasks, we show how to generate set-valued predictions from a black-box predictor that controls the expected loss on future test points at a user-specified level. Our approach provides explicit finite-sample guarantees for any dataset by using a holdout set to calibrate the size of the prediction sets. This framework enables simple, distribution-free, rigorous error control for many tasks, and we demonstrate it in five large-scale machine learning problems: (1) classification problems where some mistakes are more costly than others; (2) multi-label classification, where each observation has multiple associated labels; (3) classification problems where the labels have a hierarchical structure; (4) image segmentation, where we wish to predict a set of pixels containing an object of interest; and (5) protein structure prediction. Last, we discuss extensions to uncertainty quantification for ranking, metric learning, and distributionally robust learning.