Previous studies have examined the effect of recruiting classes on team performance in college football and found a positive correlation between recruiting classes and success on the field. The relationship between recruit quality and team performance may be overstated, however, if the effect is driven by heterogeneity between teams. In this article, we analyze the effect of recruit quality on team performance controlling for school fixed effects. We collected data from recruiting services to obtain the number of individual recruits by ex ante star rating for every Football Bowl Division (FBS) school for the years 2002-2012. We also record team performance in the regular season and postseason during the same time period. We find that controlling for between-school heterogeneity lowers the estimated effect of recruit quality on wins by more than 25%, but the remaining effect is still statistically and economically significant. Furthermore, we find that within-school variation in recruit quality is an important determinant of the probability of an appearance in the most lucrative bowl games. Our within-school estimates imply that a 5-star recruit is worth more than US$150,000 in expected Bowl Championship Series bowl proceeds to an individual school.
There is significant debate about compensation of college athletes in revenue generating sports. In college football, the potential heterogeneity in player value has received little attention in the discussion. The relationship between player quality, team performance, and sport-specific revenue should inform any compensation scheme for college football players. In this article, we provide estimates of player monetary value in college football. This is the first study to exploit player-specific ex ante recruit ratings, team performance, and football-specific revenue and profit (revenue net of expenditures) to infer player valuations. This allows us to estimate value for players whose performance can be difficult to measure given traditional sport metrics. We use a unique data set which records individual recruits by ex ante star rating annually for every Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) school and combine that data with data on team performance, bowl appearances by type, and football-specific revenue. Using a valuation approach which links player-specific quality to team performance and subsequently to revenue, we infer the value of recruits by their ex ante recruit rating. We estimate that five-star recruits increase annual revenue by US$650,000, four-star recruits increase revenue by roughly US$350,000, and three-star recruits increase revenue by US$150,000. Two-star recruits, however, are negatively related to revenue and profit, with two-star athletes reducing annual revenue by US$13,000. Overall, our results imply that player valuations are heterogeneous and that ex ante ratings of player quality are strongly related to school-specific football revenue and profit and may be predictive measures in a compensation scheme.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.