This paper documents time mean simulation characteristics from the ocean and sea ice components in a new coupled climate model developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The GFDL Climate Model version 3 (CM3) is formulated with effectively the same ocean and sea ice components as the earlier CM2.1 yet with extensive developments made to the atmosphere and land model components. Both CM2.1 and CM3 show stable mean climate indices, such as large-scale circulation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). There are notable improvements in the CM3 climate simulation relative to CM2.1, including a modified SST bias pattern and reduced biases in the Arctic sea ice cover. The authors anticipate SST differences between CM2.1 and CM3 in lower latitudes through analysis of the atmospheric fluxes at the ocean surface in corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. In contrast, SST changes in the high latitudes are dominated by ocean and sea ice effects absent in AMIP simulations. The ocean interior simulation in CM3 is generally warmer than in CM2.1, which adversely impacts the interior biases.

No abstract

The oceans are traversed by a large-scale overturning circulation, essential for the climate system as it sets the rate at which the deep ocean interacts with the atmosphere. The main region where deep waters reach the surface is in the Southern Ocean, where they are transformed by interactions with the atmosphere and sea-ice. Here, we present an observation-based estimate of the rate of overturning sustained by surface buoyancy fluxes in the Southern Ocean sea-ice sector. In this region, the seasonal growth and melt of sea-ice dominate water-mass transformations. Both sea-ice freezing and melting act as a pump, removing freshwater from high latitudes and transporting it to lower latitudes, driving a large-scale circulation that upwells 27 ± 7 Sv of deep water to the surface. The upwelled water is then transformed into 22 ± 4 Sv of lighter water and 5 ± 5 Sv into denser layers that feed an upper and lower overturning cell, respectively.

We characterize the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the inter-annual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available.

Thirteen state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to evaluate the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation to surface wind stress and buoyancy changes. Understanding how these flows-fundamental players in the global distribution of heat, gases, and nutrientsrespond to climate change is currently a widely debated issue among oceanographers. Here, the authors analyze the circulation responses of these coarse-resolution coupled models to surface fluxes. Under a future CMIP5 climate pathway where the equivalent atmospheric CO 2 reaches 1370 ppm by 2100, the models robustly project reduced Southern Ocean density in the upper 2000 m accompanied by strengthened stratification. Despite an overall increase in overlying wind stress (;20%), the projected ACC transports lie within 615% of their historical state, and no significant relationship with changes in the magnitude or position of the wind stress is identified. The models indicate that a weakening of ACC transport at the end of the twenty-first century is correlated with a strong increase in the surface heat and freshwater fluxes in the ACC region. In contrast, the surface heat gain across the ACC region and the wind-driven surface transports are significantly correlated with an increased upper and decreased lower Eulerian-mean meridional overturning circulation. The change in the eddy-induced overturning in both the depth and density spaces is quantified, and it is found that the CMIP5 models project partial eddy compensation of the upper and lower overturning cells.

The authors estimate water mass transformation rates resulting from surface buoyancy fluxes and interior diapycnal fluxes in the region south of 308S in the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model-based state estimation and three free-running coupled climate models. The meridional transport of deep and intermediate waters across 308S agrees well between models and observationally based estimates in the Atlantic Ocean but not in the Indian and Pacific, where the model-based estimates are much smaller. Associated with this, in the models about half the southward-flowing deep water is converted into lighter waters and half is converted to denser bottom waters, whereas the observationally based estimates convert most of the inflowing deep water to bottom waters. In the models, both Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) are formed primarily via an interior diapycnal transformation rather than being transformed at the surface via heat or freshwater fluxes. Given the small vertical diffusivity specified in the models in this region, the authors conclude that other processes such as cabbeling and thermobaricity must be playing an important role in water mass transformation. Finally, in the models, the largest contribution of the surface buoyancy fluxes in the Southern Ocean is to convert Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW) and AAIW into lighter Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW).

The ocean's meridional overturning circulation is closed by the upwelling of dense, carbon-rich waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean. It has been proposed that upwelling in this region is driven by strong westerly winds, implying that the intensification of Southern Ocean winds in recent decades may have enhanced the rate of upwelling, potentially affecting the global overturning circulation. However, there is no consensus on the sensitivity of upwelling to winds or on the nature of the connection between Southern Ocean processes and the global overturning circulation. In this study, the sensitivity of the overturning circulation to changes in Southern Ocean westerly wind stress is investigated using an eddy-permitting ocean-sea ice model. In addition to a suite of standard circulation metrics, an energy analysis is used to aid dynamical interpretation of the model response. Increased Southern Ocean wind stress enhances the upper cell of the overturning circulation through creation of available potential energy in the Southern Hemisphere, associated with stronger upwelling of deep water. Poleward shifts in the Southern Ocean westerlies lead to a complicated transient response, with the formation of bottom water induced by increased polynya activity in the Weddell Sea and a weakening of the upper overturning cell in the Northern Hemisphere. The energetic consequences of the upper overturning cell response indicate an interhemispheric connection to the input of available potential energy in the Northern Hemisphere.

A multimodel comparison method is used to assess the sensitivity of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation to climate change. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emissions scenario (where atmospheric CO 2 is 860 ppm at 2100), the models show cooling and freshening on density surfaces less than about 27.4 kg m 23 , a pattern that has been observed in the late twentieth century. SAMW (defined by the low potential vorticity layer) and AAIW (defined by the salinity minimum layer) warm and freshen as they shift to lighter density classes. Heat and freshwater fluxes at the ocean surface dominate the projected buoyancy gain at outcrop regions of SAMW and AAIW, whereas the net increase in the Ekman flux of heat and freshwater contributes to a lesser extent. This buoyancy gain, combined with shoaling of the winter mixed layer, reduces the volume of SAMW subducted into the ocean interior by a mean of 8 Sv (12%), and the subduction of AAIW decreases by a mean of 14 Sv (23%; 1 Sv [ 10 6 m 3 s 21 ). Decreases in the projected subduction of the key Southern Ocean upper-water masses imply a slow down in the Southern Ocean circulation in the future, driven by surface warming and freshening. A reduction in the subduction of intermediate waters implies a likely future decrease in the capacity of the Southern Ocean to sequester CO 2 .