Objective Although recent statistical and computational developments allow for the empirical testing of psychological theories in ways not previously possible, one particularly vexing challenge remains: how to optimally model the prospective, reciprocal relations between two constructs as they developmentally unfold over time. Several analytic methods currently exist that attempt to model these types of relations, and each approach is successful to varying degrees. However, none provide the unambiguous separation of between-person and within-person components of stability and change over time, components that are often hypothesized to exist in the psychological sciences. The goal of our paper is to propose and demonstrate a novel extension of the multivariate latent curve model to allow for the disaggregation of these effects. Method We begin with a review of the standard latent curve models and describe how these primarily capture between-person differences in change. We then extend this model to allow for regression structures among the time-specific residuals to capture within-person differences in change. Results We demonstrate this model using an artificial data set generated to mimic the developmental relation between alcohol use and depressive symptomatology spanning five repeated measures. Conclusions We obtain a specificity of results from the proposed analytic strategy that are not available from other existing methodologies. We conclude with potential limitations of our approach and directions for future research.
Researchers who collect multivariate time-series data across individuals must decide whether to model the dynamic processes at the individual level or at the group level. A recent innovation, group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME), offers one solution to this dichotomy by identifying group-level time-series models in a data-driven manner while also reliably recovering individual-level patterns of dynamic effects. GIMME is unique in that it does not assume homogeneity in processes across individuals in terms of the patterns or weights of temporal effects. However, it can be difficult to make inferences from the nuances in varied individual-level patterns. The present article introduces an algorithm that arrives at subgroups of individuals that have similar dynamic models. Importantly, the researcher does not need to decide the number of subgroups. The final models contain reliable group-, subgroup-, and individual-level patterns that enable generalizable inferences, subgroups of individuals with shared model features, and individual-level patterns and estimates. We show that integrating community detection into the GIMME algorithm improves upon current standards in two important ways: (1) providing reliable classification and (2) increasing the reliability in the recovery of individual-level effects. We demonstrate this method on functional MRI from a sample of former American football players.
Intensive longitudinal data provide psychological researchers with the potential to better understand individual-level temporal processes. While the collection of such data has become increasingly common, there are a comparatively small number of methods well-suited for analyzing these data, and many methods assume homogeneity across individuals. A recent development rooted in structural equation and vector autoregressive modeling, Subgrouping Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation (S-GIMME), provides one method for arriving at individual-level models composed of processes shared by the sample, a subset of the sample, and a given individual. As this algorithm was motivated and validated for use with neuroimaging data, its performance is less understood in the context of ambulatory assessment data. Here, we evaluate the performance of the S-GIMME algorithm across various conditions frequently encountered with daily diary (compared to neuroimaging) data; namely, a smaller number of variables, a lower number of time points, and smaller autoregressive effects. We demonstrate, for the first time, the importance of the autoregressive effects in recovering data-generating connections and directions, and the ability to use S-GIMME with lengths of data commonly seen in daily diary studies. We demonstrate the use of S-GIMME with an empirical example evaluating the general, shared, and unique temporal processes associated with a sample of individuals with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Finally, we underscore the need for methods such as S-GIMME moving forward given the increasing use of intensive longitudinal data in psychological research, and the potential for these data to provide novel insights into human behavior and mental health. (PsycINFO Database Record
Background There is well-known heterogeneity in affective mechanisms in depression that may extend to positive affect. We used data-driven parsing of neural connectivity to reveal subgroups present across depressed and healthy individuals during positive processing, informing targets for mechanistic intervention. Methods 92 individuals (68 depressed patients, 24 never-depressed controls) completed a sustained positive mood induction during fMRI. Directed functional connectivity paths within a depression-relevant network were characterized using Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation, a method shown to accurately recover the direction and presence of connectivity paths in individual participants. During model-selection, individuals were clustered using community detection on neural connectivity estimates. Subgroups were externally tested across multiple levels of analysis. Results Two connectivity-based subgroups emerged: Subgroup A, characterized by weaker connectivity overall, and Subgroup B, exhibiting hyperconnectivity (relative to Subgroup A), particularly among ventral affective regions. Subgroup predicted diagnostic status (Subgroup B contained 81% of patients;50% of controls;χ2=8.6,p=.003) and default mode network connectivity during a separate resting state task. Among patients, Subgroup B members had higher self-reported symptoms, lower sustained positive mood during the induction, and higher negative bias on a reaction time task. Symptom-based depression subgroups did not predict these external variables. Conclusions Neural connectivity-based categorization travels with diagnostic category and is clinically predictive, but not clinically deterministic. Both patients and controls showed heterogeneous, and overlapping, profiles. The larger, and more severely affected patient subgroup was characterized by ventrally-driven hyperconnectivity during positive processing. Data-driven parsing suggests heterogeneous substrates of depression, and possible resilience in controls in spite of biological overlap.
Personality and psychopathology are composed of dynamic and interactive processes among diverse psychological systems, manifesting over time and in response to an individual's natural environment. Ambulatory assessment techniques promise to revolutionize assessment practices by allowing access to the dynamic data necessary to study these processes directly. Assessing manifestations of personality and psychopathology naturalistically in an individual's own ecology allows for dynamic modeling of key behavioral processes. However, advances in dynamic data collection have highlighted the challenges of both fully understanding an individual (via idiographic models) and how s/he compares with others (as seen in nomothetic models). Methods are needed that can simultaneously model idiographic (i.e., person-specific) processes and nomothetic (i.e., general) structure from intensive longitudinal personality assessments. Here we present a method, group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) for simultaneously studying general, shared (i.e., in subgroups), and person-specific processes in intensive longitudinal behavioral data. We first provide an introduction to the GIMME method, followed by a demonstration of its use in a sample of individuals diagnosed with personality disorder who completed daily diaries over 100 consecutive days. Public Significance StatementAmbulatory assessment techniques (e.g., ecological momentary assessment) generate information that can be used to develop personalized models of an individual's behavior. Techniques are presented that allow for the simultaneous development of many personalized models and searches for shared features across models.
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