After the globally coordinated cessation of any serotype of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), some risks remain from undetected, existing homotypic OPV‐related transmission and/or restarting transmission due to several possible reintroduction risks. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated global cessation of serotype 2‐containing OPV (OPV2) in 2016. Following OPV2 cessation, the GPEI and countries implemented activities to withdraw all the remaining trivalent OPV, which contains all three poliovirus serotypes (i.e., 1, 2, and 3), from the supply chain and replace it with bivalent OPV (containing only serotypes 1 and 3). However, as of early 2020, monovalent OPV2 use for outbreak response continues in many countries. In addition, outbreaks observed in 2019 demonstrated evidence of different types of risks than previously modeled. We briefly review the 2019 epidemiological experience with serotype 2 live poliovirus outbreaks and propose a new risk for unexpected OPV introduction for inclusion in global modeling of OPV cessation. Using an updated model of global poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution with and without consideration of this new risk, we explore the implications of the current global situation with respect to the likely need to restart preventive use of OPV2 in OPV‐using countries. Simulation results without this new risk suggest OPV2 restart will likely need to occur (81% of 100 iterations) to manage the polio endgame based on the GPEI performance to date with existing vaccine tools, and with the new risk of unexpected OPV introduction the expected OPV2 restart probability increases to 89%. Contingency planning requires new OPV2 bulk production, including genetically stabilized OPV2 strains.

Falsified and substandard drugs are a global health problem, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) that have weak pharmacovigilance and drug regulatory systems. Poor quality medicines have important health consequences, including the potential for treatment failure, development of antimicrobial resistance, and serious adverse drug reactions, increasing healthcare costs and undermining the public's confidence in healthcare systems. This article presents a review of the methods employed for the analysis of pharmaceutical formulations. Technologies for detecting substandard and falsified drugs were identified primarily through literature reviews. Key-informant interviews with experts augmented our methods when warranted. In order to aid comparisons, technologies were assigned a suitability score for use in LMIC ranging from 0–8. Scores measured the need for electricity, need for sample preparation, need for reagents, portability, level of training required, and speed of analysis. Technologies with higher scores were deemed the most feasible in LMICs. We categorized technologies that cost $10,000 USD or less as low cost, $10,000–100,000 USD as medium cost and those greater than $100,000 USD as high cost technologies (all prices are 2013 USD). This search strategy yielded information on 42 unique technologies. Five technologies were deemed both low cost and had feasibility scores between 6–8, and an additional four technologies had medium cost and high feasibility. Twelve technologies were deemed portable and therefore could be used in the field. Many technologies can aid in the detection of substandard and falsified drugs that vary from the simplest of checklists for packaging to the most complex mass spectrometry analyses. Although there is no single technology that can serve all the requirements of detecting falsified and substandard drugs, there is an opportunity to bifurcate the technologies into specific niches to address specific sections within the workflow process of detecting products.

SummaryBackgroundIntermittent preventive treatment (IPT) for malaria is used in infants, children, adults, and pregnant women. Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is an effective, well tolerated artemisinin-based combination therapy. The long half-life of piperaquine makes it attractive for IPT. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to establish the efficacy and safety of repeated treatment with DP.MethodsFollowing PRISMA guidelines, we searched multiple databases on Sept 1, 2016, with the terms: “human” AND “dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine” OR “DHA-PPQ”. Studies were eligible if they were randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or prospective cohort studies involving repeat exposures to standard 3-day courses of DP for either seasonal malaria chemoprevention, mass drug administration, or treatment of clinical malaria, conducted at any time and in any geographic location. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to generate pooled incidence rate ratios and relative risks, or risk differences.Findings11 studies were included: two repeat treatment studies (one in children younger than 5 years and one in pregnant women), and nine IPT trials (five in children younger than 5 years, one in schoolchildren, one in adults, two in pregnant women). Comparator interventions included placebo, artemether-lumefantrine, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), SP+amodiaquine, SP+piperaquine, SP+chloroquine, and co-trimoxazole. Of 14 628 participants, 3935 received multiple DP courses (2–18). Monthly IPT-DP was associated with an 84% reduction in the incidence of malaria parasitaemia measured by microscopy compared with placebo. Monthly IPT-DP was associated with fewer serious adverse events than placebo, daily co-trimoxazole, or monthly SP. Among 56 IPT-DP recipients (26 children, 30 pregnant women) with cardiac parameters, all QTc intervals were within normal limits, with no significant increase in QTc prolongation with increasing courses of DP.InterpretationMonthly DP appears well tolerated and effective for IPT. Additional data are needed in pregnancy and to further explore the cardiac safety with monthly dosing.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and NIH.

BackgroundPneumonia and diarrhea are leading causes of death for children under five (U5). It is challenging to estimate the total number of deaths and cause-specific mortality fractions. Two major efforts, one led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and the other led by the World Health Organization (WHO)/Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) created estimates for the burden of disease due to these two syndromes, yet their estimates differed greatly for 2010.MethodsThis paper discusses three main drivers of the differences: data sources, data processing, and covariates used for modelling. The paper discusses differences in the model assumptions for etiology-specific estimates and presents recommendations for improving future models.ResultsIHME’s Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study estimated 6.8 million U5 deaths compared to 7.6 million U5 deaths from CHERG. The proportional differences between the pneumonia and diarrhea burden estimates from the two groups are much larger; GBD 2010 estimated 0.847 million and CHERG estimated 1.396 million due to pneumonia. Compared to CHERG, GBD 2010 used broader inclusion criteria for verbal autopsy and vital registration data. GBD 2010 and CHERG used different data processing procedures and therefore attributed the causes of neonatal death differently. The major difference in pneumonia etiologies modeling approach was the inclusion of observational study data; GBD 2010 included observational studies. CHERG relied on vaccine efficacy studies.DiscussionGreater transparency in modeling methods and more timely access to data sources are needed. In October 2013, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) hosted an expert meeting to examine possible approaches for better estimation. The group recommended examining the impact of data by systematically excluding sources in their models. GBD 2.0 will use a counterfactual approach for estimating mortality from pathogens due to specific etiologies to overcome bias of the methods used in GBD 2010 going forward.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0728-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Severe malaria in pregnancy is a large contributor to maternal morbidity and mortality. Intravenous quinine has traditionally been the treatment drug of choice for severe malaria in pregnancy. However, recent randomized clinical trials (RCTs) indicate that intravenous artesunate is more efficacious for treating severe malaria, resulting in changes to the World Health Organization (WHO) treatment guidelines. Artemisinins, including artesunate, are embryo-lethal in animal studies and there is limited experience with their use in the first trimester. This review summarizes the current literature supporting 2010 WHO treatment guidelines for severe malaria in pregnancy and the efficacy, pharmacokinetics, and adverse event data for currently used antimalarials available for severe malaria in pregnancy. We identified ten studies on the treatment of severe malaria in pregnancy that reported clinical outcomes. In two studies comparing intravenous quinine with intravenous artesunate, intravenous artesunate was more efficacious and safe for use in pregnant women. No studies detected an increased risk of miscarriage, stillbirth, or congenital anomalies associated with first trimester exposure to artesunate. Although the WHO recommends using either quinine or artesunate for the treatment of severe malaria in first trimester pregnancies, our findings suggest that artesunate should be the preferred treatment option for severe malaria in all trimesters.

The purpose of this study was to examine patterns and predictors of HIV/STI risk over time among Latino migrant men in a new receiving community. Latino men (N = 125) were interviewed quarterly for 18 months and HIV/STI tested annually. Selected individual, environmental and cultural factors by partner type and condom use were explored longitudinally and in a cross-section. Sex with female sex workers (FSWs) and multiple partners decreased, sex with main partners and abstinence increased, while the number of casual partners remained stable. Consistent condom use was highest with FSWs, lowest with main partners and midrange with casual partners with no trends over time. STI morbidity was low; no HIV was detected. Drug use and high mobility were associated with inconsistent condom use with FSW, whereas having family in the household was protective. HIV/STI prevention efforts should focus on drug using Latino migrants who are highly mobile and should foster healthy social connections.

Background Neurofilament light chain (NF-L) concentration is recognized to be modified in neurological diseases and traumatic brain injuries, but studies in the normal aging population are lacking. It is, therefore, urgent to identify influencing factors of NF-L concentration in the aging population. Method We assessed NF-L concentration in sera of a large cohort of 409 community-dwelling adults aged over 65 years. We studied the association between NF-L and various physiological factors but also with self-reported comorbidities or life-style habits. Results We showed that NF-L concentration in serum was tightly associated with cystatin C concentration (r = 0.501, p < 0.0001) and consequently, to the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (r = − 0.492; p < 0.0001). Additionally, NF-L concentration was dependent on age and body mass index (BMI) but not sex. Among the self-reported comorbidities, subjects who reported neurological disorders, cardiovascular diseases or history of fracture had higher NF-L concentration in univariate analysis, whereas it was only the case for subjects who reported neurological disorders in the multivariate analysis. NF-L concentration was also increased when Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) was decreased (≤ 25 points) but not when geriatric depression score (GDS) was increased (> 5 points) in both univariate and multivariate analysis. Finally, we are providing reference ranges by age categories for subjects with or without altered renal function. Conclusion NF-L concentration in the aging population is not driven by the increasing number of comorbidities or depression. Yet, NF-L blood concentration is dependent on kidney function and NF-L interpretation in patients suffering from renal failure should be taken with caution.

Beginning in 2013, multiple local government areas (LGAs) in Borno and Yobe in northeast Nigeria and other parts of the Lake Chad basin experienced a violent insurgency that resulted in substantial numbers of isolated and displaced people. Northeast Nigeria represents the last known reservoir country of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission in Africa, with detection of paralytic cases caused by serotype 1 WPV in 2016 in Borno and serotype 3 WPV in late 2012. Parts of Borno and Yobe are also problematic areas for transmission of serotype 2 circulating vaccine‐derived polioviruses, and they continue to face challenges associated with conflict and inadequate health services in security‐compromised areas that limit both immunization and surveillance activities. We model poliovirus transmission of all three serotypes for Borno and Yobe using a deterministic differential equation‐based model that includes four subpopulations to account for limitations in access to immunization services and dynamic restrictions in population mixing. We find that accessibility issues and insufficient immunization allow for prolonged poliovirus transmission and potential undetected paralytic cases, although as of the end of 2019, including responsive program activities in the modeling suggest die out of indigenous serotypes 1 and 3 WPVs prior to 2020. Specifically, recent and current efforts to access isolated populations and provide oral poliovirus vaccine continue to reduce the risks of sustained and undetected transmission, although some uncertainty remains. Continued improvement in immunization and surveillance in the isolated subpopulations should minimize these risks. Stochastic modeling can build on this analysis to characterize the implications for undetected transmission and confidence about no circulation.