Lake surface water temperatures are warming worldwide, raising concerns about the future integrity of valuable lake ecosystem services. In contrast to surface water temperatures, we know far less about what is happening to water temperature beneath the surface, where most organisms live. Moreover, we know little about which characteristics make lakes more or less sensitive to climate change and other environmental stressors. We examined changes in lake thermal structure for 231 lakes across northeastern North America (NENA), a region with an exceptionally high density of lakes. We determined how lake thermal structure has changed in recent decades and assessed which lake characteristics are related to changes in lake thermal structure. In general, NENA lakes had increasing near-surface temperatures and thermal stratification strength. On average, changes in deepwater temperatures for the 231 lakes were not significantly different than zero, but individually, half of the lakes experienced warming and half cooling deepwater temperature through time. More transparent lakes (Secchi transparency >5 m) tended to have higher near-surface warming and greater increases in strength of thermal stratification than less transparent lakes. Whole-lake warming was greatest in polymictic lakes, where frequent summer mixing distributed heat throughout the water column. Lakes often function as important sentinels of climate change, but lake characteristics within and across regions modify the magnitude of the signal with important implications for lake biology, ecology and chemistry.

Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970–2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade−1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m−3 decade−1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade−1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from − 0.68 °C decade−1 to + 0.65 °C decade−1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.

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Species' ranges are dynamic, shifting in response to a large number of interrelated ecological and anthropogenic processes. Climate change is thought to be one of the most influential drivers of range shifts, but the effects of other confounded ecological processes are often ignored even though these processes may modify expected range responses to climate change. To determine the relative effects of climate, forest availability, connectivity, and biotic processes such as immigration and establishment, we examine range changes occurring in a species of bird, the Hooded Warbler (Wilsonia citrina). We focus predominantly on the periphery of the species' northern range in Canada but we also examine data from the entire species' range. Nesting records in southern Ontario were obtained from two breeding bird Atlases of Ontario separated by a period of 20 years (1981-1985 and 2001-2005), and the rate of range expansion was estimated by comparing the number of occupied areas in each Atlas. Twelve hypotheses of the relationship between the rate of range expansion and factors known to influence range change were examined using modelselection techniques and a mixed modeling approach (zero-inflated Poisson's regression). Cooler temperatures were positively related to a lack of range expansion indicating that climate constrained the species' distribution. Establishment probability (based on the number of occupied, neighboring Atlas squares) and immigration from populations to the south (estimated using independent data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey) were also important predictors of range expansion. These biotic process variables can mask the effects of forest availability and connectivity on range expansion. Expansion due to climate change may be slower in fragmented systems, but the rate of expansion will be influenced largely by biotic processes such as proximity to neighboring populations.

SUMMARY1. We review some of the classic literature on geomorphology and ecology of streams in an effort to examine how theoretical developments in these aquatic sciences have influenced the way fresh flowing waters are classified. Our aim was to provide a historical examination of conceptual developments related to fluvial classification, and to discuss implications for conservation planning and resource management. 2. Periods of conceptual influences can be separated into three overlapping phases each distinguished by theoretical, analytical or technological advances: (i) early Darwinian perspectives; (ii) the quantitative revolution; and, (iii) age of the computer, hierarchy and scale. 3. During the first phase, stream geomorphologists were largely influenced by Darwinian metaphors. The study of stream origin and change through time became more important than the study of stream systems themselves. The idea that streams progress deterministically through successive stages of development seemed to create a veil, most prevalently in North America, that barred analysis of the full scope of variability in these systems for over 50 years. 4. The quantitative revolution brought about many new ideas and developments, including the laws of stream numbers. This period focused on predictive and mechanistic explanations of stream processes, setting the stage for physically based stream classifications that assume that streams can be restored by engineering their physical characteristics. 5. In the most recent 'age of the computer', concepts from the fields of geographic information science and landscape ecology have been incorporated into stream ecology and aquatic classification. This has led to investigations in stream and aquatic ecosystems at hierarchical spatial scales and along different dimensions (upstream ⁄ downstream, riparian ⁄ floodplain, channel ⁄ ground water and through time). Yet, in contrast to terrestrial landscapes, flowing waters are not as easily classified into spatially nested hierarchical regions wherein upper levels can be subdivided into smaller and smaller regions at finer spatial scales. Riverscapes are perhaps best described as directionally nested hierarchies: aquatic elements further downstream cannot be rendered equivalently to elements upstream. Moreover, fully integrated aquatic ecosystem classifications that incorporate lake and river networks, wetlands, groundwater reservoirs and upland areas are exceedingly rare. 6. We reason that the way forward for classification of flowing waters is to account for the directionally nested nature of these networks and to encode flexibility into modern digital freshwater inventories and fluvial classification models.

Human-induced salinization caused by the use of road deicing salts, agricultural practices, mining operations, and climate change is a major threat to the biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Yet, it is unclear if freshwater ecosystems are protected from salinization by current water quality guidelines. Leveraging an experimental network of land-based and in-lake mesocosms across North America and Europe, we tested how salinization—indicated as elevated chloride (Cl−) concentration—will affect lake food webs and if two of the lowest Cl− thresholds found globally are sufficient to protect these food webs. Our results indicated that salinization will cause substantial zooplankton mortality at the lowest Cl− thresholds established in Canada (120 mg Cl−/L) and the United States (230 mg Cl−/L) and throughout Europe where Cl− thresholds are generally higher. For instance, at 73% of our study sites, Cl− concentrations that caused a ≥50% reduction in cladoceran abundance were at or below Cl− thresholds in Canada, in the United States, and throughout Europe. Similar trends occurred for copepod and rotifer zooplankton. The loss of zooplankton triggered a cascading effect causing an increase in phytoplankton biomass at 47% of study sites. Such changes in lake food webs could alter nutrient cycling and water clarity and trigger declines in fish production. Current Cl− thresholds across North America and Europe clearly do not adequately protect lake food webs. Water quality guidelines should be developed where they do not exist, and there is an urgent need to reassess existing guidelines to protect lake ecosystems from human-induced salinization.

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This study presents an innovative approach to the planning of a critical highway sensor infrastructure -road weather information system (RWIS). The problem is formulated to minimize the spatially averaged kriging variance of hazardous road surface conditions while maximizing the coverage of accident-prone areas. This optimization framework takes explicit account of the value of information from an RWIS network, providing the potential to enhance the overall efficacy of winter maintenance operations and the safety of the travelers. Spatial simulated annealing is used to solve the resulting optimization problem and its performance is demonstrated using a real-world case study from Minnesota, United States. The case study illustrates the distinct features of the proposed model, assesses the effectiveness of the current location setting, and recommends additional stations locations. The findings of our study suggest that the proposed model could become a valuable decisionsupport tool for planning a new RWIS network and evaluating the performance of alternative RWIS expansion plans.