Background New research criteria for preclinical Alzheimer’s disease (AD)have been proposed by the National Institute on Aging and Alzheimer’s Association. They include stages for cognitively normal individuals with abnormal amyloid markers (stage 1), abnormal amyloid and injury markers (stage 2) and abnormal amyloid and injury markers and subtle cognitive changes (stage 3). We investigated the occurrence and long-term outcome of these stages. Methods Cerebrospinal fluidamyloid-β1–42 and tau levels and a memory composite score were used to classify 311 cognitively normal(Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR]=0) research participants ≥65 years as normal (both markers normal), preclinical AD stage 1–3, or Suspected Non-Alzheimer Pathophysiology (SNAP, abnormal injury marker without abnormal amyloid marker). Outcome measures were progression to CDR≥0·5 symptomatic AD and mortality up to 15 years after baseline (average=4 years). Findings 129 (41·5%) of participants were normal, 47 (15%)were in stage 1, 36 (12%) in stage 2, 13 (4%)in stage 3, 72 (23%) had SNAP, and 14 (4·5%) remained unclassified. The proportion of preclinical AD (stage 1–3) in our cohort was higher in individuals older than 72 years and in APOE-ε4 carriers. The 5-year progression rate to CDR≥0·5 symptomatic AD was 2% for normal participants, 11% for stage 1, 26% for stage 2, 56% for stage 3, and 5% for SNAP. Compared with normal individuals, participants with preclinical AD had an increased risk of death (HR=6·2, p=0·0396). Interpretation Preclinical AD is common in cognitively normal elderly and strongly associated with future cognitive decline and mortality. Preclinical AD thus should be an important target for therapeutic interventions.

Introduction: In this multicenter study on subjective cognitive decline (SCD) in community-based and memory clinic settings, we assessed the (1) incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and non-AD dementia and (2) determinants of progression to dementia. Methods: Eleven cohorts provided 2978 participants with SCD and 1391 controls. We estimated dementia incidence and identified risk factors using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: In SCD, incidence of dementia was 17.7 (95% Poisson confidence interval 15.2–20.3)/1000 person-years (AD: 11.5 [9.6–13.7], non-AD: 6.1 [4.7–7.7]), compared with 14.2 (11.3–17.6) in controls (AD: 10.1 [7.7–13.0], non-AD: 4.1 [2.6–6.0]). The risk of dementia was strongly increased in SCD in a memory clinic setting but less so in a community-based setting. In addition, higher age (hazard ratio 1.1 [95% confidence interval 1.1–1.1]), lower Mini-Mental State Examination (0.7 [0.66–0.8]), and apolipoprotein E ε4 (1.8 [1.3–2.5]) increased the risk of dementia. Discussion: SCD can precede both AD and non-AD dementia. Despite their younger age, individuals with SCD in a memory clinic setting have a higher risk of dementia than those in community-based cohorts.

Three sets of research criteria are available for diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease in subjects with mild cognitive impairment: the International Working Group-1, International Working Group-2, and National Institute of Aging-Alzheimer Association criteria. We compared the prevalence and prognosis of Alzheimer's disease at the mild cognitive impairment stage according to these criteria. Subjects with mild cognitive impairment (n = 1607), 766 of whom had both amyloid and neuronal injury markers, were recruited from 13 cohorts. We used cognitive test performance and available biomarkers to classify subjects as prodromal Alzheimer's disease according to International Working Group-1 and International Working Group-2 criteria and in the high Alzheimer's disease likelihood group, conflicting biomarker groups (isolated amyloid pathology or suspected non-Alzheimer pathophysiology), and low Alzheimer's disease likelihood group according to the National Institute of Ageing-Alzheimer Association criteria. Outcome measures were the proportion of subjects with Alzheimer's disease at the mild cognitive impairment stage and progression to Alzheimer's disease-type dementia. We performed survival analyses using Cox proportional hazards models. According to the International Working Group-1 criteria, 850 (53%) subjects had prodromal Alzheimer's disease. Their 3-year progression rate to Alzheimer's disease-type dementia was 50% compared to 21% for subjects without prodromal Alzheimer's disease. According to the International Working Group-2 criteria, 308 (40%) subjects had prodromal Alzheimer's disease. Their 3-year progression rate to Alzheimer's disease-type dementia was 61% compared to 22% for subjects without prodromal Alzheimer's disease. According to the National Institute of Ageing-Alzheimer Association criteria, 353 (46%) subjects were in the high Alzheimer's disease likelihood group, 49 (6%) in the isolated amyloid pathology group, 220 (29%) in the suspected non-Alzheimer pathophysiology group, and 144 (19%) in the low Alzheimer's disease likelihood group. The 3-year progression rate to Alzheimer's disease-type dementia was 59% in the high Alzheimer's disease likelihood group, 22% in the isolated amyloid pathology group, 24% in the suspected non-Alzheimer pathophysiology group, and 5% in the low Alzheimer's disease likelihood group. Our findings support the use of the proposed research criteria to identify Alzheimer's disease at the mild cognitive impairment stage. In clinical settings, the use of both amyloid and neuronal injury markers as proposed by the National Institute of Ageing-Alzheimer Association criteria offers the most accurate prognosis. For clinical trials, selection of subjects in the National Institute of Ageing-Alzheimer Association high Alzheimer's disease likelihood group or the International Working Group-2 prodromal Alzheimer's disease group could be considered.

In the 12 years since the publication of the first Consensus Paper of the WFSBP on biomarkers of neurodegenerative dementias, enormous advancement has taken place in the field, and the Task Force takes now the opportunity to extend and update the original paper. New concepts of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and the conceptual interactions between AD and dementia due to AD were developed, resulting in two sets for diagnostic/research criteria. Procedures for pre-analytical sample handling, biobanking, analyses and post-analytical interpretation of the results were intensively studied and optimised. A global quality control project was introduced to evaluate and monitor the inter-centre variability in measurements with the goal of harmonisation of results. Contexts of use and how to approach candidate biomarkers in biological specimens other than cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), e.g. blood, were precisely defined. Important development was achieved in neuroimaging techniques, including studies comparing amyloid-b positron emission tomography results to fluid-based modalities. Similarly, development in research laboratory technologies, such as ultra-sensitive methods, raises our hopes to further improve analytical and diagnostic accuracy of classic and novel candidate biomarkers. Synergistically, advancement in clinical trials of anti-dementia therapies energises and motivates the efforts to find and optimise the most reliable early diagnostic modalities. Finally, the first studies were published addressing the potential of cost-effectiveness of the biomarkers-based diagnosis of neurodegenerative disorders. ARTICLE HISTORY

Suspected non-Alzheimer disease pathophysiology (SNAP) is a biomarker-based concept that applies to individuals with normal levels of amyloid-β biomarkers in the brain, but in whom biomarkers of neurodegeneration are abnormal. The term SNAP has been applied to individuals who are clinically normal for their age and to individuals with mild cognitive impairment, but is applicable to any amyloid-negative, neurodegeneration-positive individual regardless of clinical status, except when the pathology underlying neurodegeneration can be confidently inferred from the clinical presentation. SNAP is present in ~23% of clinically normal individuals aged >65 years and in ~25% of mildly cognitively impaired individuals. APOE4 is underrepresented in individuals with SNAP compared with amyloid-positive individuals. Clinically normal and mildly impaired individuals with SNAP have worse clinical and/or cognitive outcomes than individuals with normal levels of neurodegeneration and amyloid-β biomarkers. In this Perspectives article we describe the available data on SNAP and address topical controversies in the field.