This paper empirically investigates the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance‐of‐payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it shows that a large capital inflow episode increases substantially the probability of having a banking or a currency crisis in the two following years. The effect is especially large for the case of balance‐of‐payment crises. The paper also finds that the effect of large capital inflows is different depending on the type of flows characterizing the episode. In particular, large capital inflows that are debt driven significantly increase the probability of banking, currency and balance‐of‐payment crises, whereas inflows that are driven by equity portfolio investment or foreign direct investment have a negligible effect.

This paper analyses the effect of capital inflow surges on the evolution of domestic credit. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that in the two years following the beginning of a capital inflow surge the credit-to-GDP ratio increases by about 2 percentage points. The effect is reversed in the medium-term with the credit-to-GDP ratio decreased by almost 4 percentage points seven years after the initial surge. The paper also finds that the effect is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode (debt vs. portfolio equity vs. FDI), with large capital inflows that are debt-driven having the largest effect. The results of the paper also suggest that the short-term effect of capital inflow surges on domestic credit depends on countries’ macroeconomic policy stances. In particular, it is found that this effect is lower in countries with higher real exchange rate flexibility and fiscal policy counter-cyclicality

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of international investment positions for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. In addition to the usually considered drivers offoreign assets and liabilities, the analysis focuses on the role of structural policy indicators. Using cross-section and panel regression techniques the results suggest that structural policy settings are important medium-term drivers of capital flows, having a relatively large impact on gross and net foreign capital positions and on their composition. In particular, the results suggest that certain kinds of structural policy reform could help to narrow global imbalances, and to modify the composition of international capital flows towards more stable and productive sources

The financial crisis has resulted in a substantial increase in unemployment in the OECD. This paper shows that this increase has reversed the reduction in structural unemployment which has been estimated to have occurred in most OECD countries since the late 1990s. Structural unemployment is defined as a time-varying NAIRU derived from the information contained in a reduced Phillips curve equation (linking inflation to the unemployment gap) by means of a Kalman filter. The overall limited revisions in historical NAIRU estimated in 2008 after such a large labour market shock support the robustness of the OECD approach. This approach is therefore extended to almost all OECD countries. Alternative specifications of the Phillips curve are proposed for some specific groups of countries. Un réexamen des NAIRUs après la crise La crise de la crise financière a entraîné une augmentation importante du chômage dans l'OCDE. Ce document montre que cette augmentation a inversé la tendance á la réduction du chômage structurel que l’on avait été estimé avoir eu lieu dans la plupart des pays de l'OCDE depuis la fin des années 1990. Le chômage structurel est défini comme à un NAIRU variant dans le temps et dérivé de l'information contenue dans une équation de courbe de Phillips réduite (reliant l'inflation à l'écart du chômage au chômage structurel) au moyen d'un filtre de Kalman. Les révisions dans l’ensemble limitées du NAIRU historique estimés en 2008 après un tel choc sur le marché du travail supportent la robustesse de l'approche de l'OCDE. Cette approche est donc étendue à presque tous les pays de l'OCDE. Des spécifications alternatives de la courbe de Phillips sont proposées pour certains groupes spécifiques du pays.unemployment, NAIRU, Phillips curves, structural unemployment, chômage structurel, chômage, courbe de Phillips, NAIRU

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