Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may AbstractWe highlight the ex ante risk-shifting incentives faced by a bank's shareholders/managers when CoCos (contingent convertible capital) are part of the capital structure. The risk shifting incentive arises from the wealth transfers that the shareholders will receive upon the CoCo's conversion under CoCo designs widely used in practice. Specifically we show that for principal writedown and nondilutive equity-converting CoCos, shareholders/managers have an incentive to take on more risk to make conversion more likely because of those wealth transfers. As a consequence, wide spread use of CoCos will increase systemic fragility. We show that such improperly designed CoCos should not be allowed to fill in loss absorption capacity requirements unless accompanied by higher required equity ratios to mitigate the increased risk taking incentives they lead to. Sufficiently dilutive CoCos do not lead to undesired risk taking behavior.JEL classification: G01, G13, G21, G28, G32 Nontechnical SummaryCoCos are instruments that start out as debt and then either convert to equity or are written off upon the occurrence of a trigger event. This makes them very attractive to regulators as they avoid a costly bailout by providing loss absorption capacity. However, the design of CoCos may cause bank shareholders to choose actions now that necessitates the loss absorption capacity in the future. Prior to conversion, there is no discernible difference between CoCos and ordinary subordinated debt. However, after conversion, the payoffs to CoCo holders and shareholders are altered drastically, leading to potential wealth transfers from CoCo holders and shareholders. If the shareholders are better off after conversion, then they will choose actions that make conversion more likely. However, these actions have to be decided upon and implemented before anything else occurs. Therefore we examine the expected value of residual equity and determine which action maximizes it.In our setup, the action is a decision about the riskiness of the assets that the bank invests in. Our base case uses subordinated debt in the capital structure, and our analysis involves replacing the subordinated debt with the same amount of CoCos. The expected value of residual equity with CoCos can be expressed as the value of residual equity with subordinated debt, plus an expected wealth transfer. With this formulation, we can very easily say whether the CoCo indu...
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractCoCo's (contingent convertible capital) are designed to convert from debt to equity when banks need it most. Using a Diamond-Dybvig model cast in a global games framework, we show that while the CoCo conversion of the issuing bank may bring the bank back into compliance with capital requirements, it will nevertheless raise the probability of the bank being run, because conversion is a negative signal to depositors about asset quality. Moreover, conversion imposes a negative externality on other banks in the system in the likely case of correlated asset returns, so bank runs elsewhere in the banking system become more probable too and systemic risk will actually go up after conversion. CoCo's thus lead to a direct conflict between micro-and macroprudential objectives. We also highlight that ex ante incentives to raise capital to stave off conversion depend critically on CoCo design. In many currently popular CoCo designs, wealth transfers after conversion actually flow from debt holders to equity holders, destroying the latter's incentives to provide additional capital in times of stress. Finally the link between CoCo conversion and systemic risk highlights the tradeoffs that a regulator faces in deciding to convert CoCo's, providing a possible explanation of regulatory forbearance.JEL classification: G01, G21, G32
In this paper we attempt to characterize the stability of shadow deposits in China with interest rate liberalization and fintech developments. We emphasize that shadow banks provide higher but riskier returns and such characteristics affect the stability of shadow deposits. In our setting, the stability of shadow deposits is influenced by two offsetting effects, namely: the patience effect, which makes investors more willing to wait because of the potentially higher returns; and the uncertainty effect, which makes investors more likely to withdraw as a result of higher risk. Under liberalized interest rates, the patience effect will erode and the uncertainty effect will be heightened because the post‐liberalization higher return of traditional banks undermines the importance of the extra return of shadow deposits to depositors, while preserving the importance of the risk aspect. Fintech development is modeled as a reduction in the withdrawal cost that facilitates runs. This affects the stability of shadow deposits because of their wider fintech reliance. Regulators should be cautious in pushing interest rate liberalization and fintech application alongside building a safety net for shadow banking.
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