Recent research using repeat photography, long-term ecological monitoring and dendrochronology has documented shrub expansion in arctic, high-latitude and alpine tundra 1 1748-9326/11/045509+15$33.00 c 2011 IOP Publishing Ltd Printed in the UK Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011) 045509 I H Myers-Smith et al ecosystems.Here, we (1) synthesize these findings, (2) present a conceptual framework that identifies mechanisms and constraints on shrub increase, (3) explore causes, feedbacks and implications of the increased shrub cover in tundra ecosystems, and (4) address potential lines of investigation for future research. Satellite observations from around the circumpolar Arctic, showing increased productivity, measured as changes in 'greenness', have coincided with a general rise in high-latitude air temperatures and have been partly attributed to increases in shrub cover. Studies indicate that warming temperatures, changes in snow cover, altered disturbance regimes as a result of permafrost thaw, tundra fires, and anthropogenic activities or changes in herbivory intensity are all contributing to observed changes in shrub abundance. A large-scale increase in shrub cover will change the structure of tundra ecosystems and alter energy fluxes, regional climate, soil-atmosphere exchange of water, carbon and nutrients, and ecological interactions between species. In order to project future rates of shrub expansion and understand the feedbacks to ecosystem and climate processes, future research should investigate the species or trait-specific responses of shrubs to climate change including: (1) the temperature sensitivity of shrub growth, (2) factors controlling the recruitment of new individuals, and (3) the relative influence of the positive and negative feedbacks involved in shrub expansion.

Recent densification of shrub cover is now documented in many Arctic regions. However, most studies focus on global scale responses, yielding very little information on the local patterns. This research aims to quantify shrub cover increase at northern treeline (Québec, Canada) in two important types of environment, sandy terraces and hilltops (which cover about 70% of the landscape), and to identify the species involved. The comparison of a mosaic of two aerial photographs from 1957 (137 km 2 ) and one satellite image taken in 2008 (151 km 2 ) revealed that both hilltops and terraces recorded an increase in shrub cover. However, the increase was significantly greater on terraces than on hilltops (21.6% versus 11.6%). According to ground truthing, the shrub cover densification is associated mainly with an increase of Betula glandulosa Michx. The numerous seedlings observed during the ground truthing suggest that shrub densification should continue in the future.

In order to characterize shrub response near the treeline in Eastern Nunavik (Québec), a region under extensive warming since the 1990s, we compared two series (1964 and 2003) of vertical aerial photos from the vicinity of Kangiqsualujjuaq. Our study revealed a widespread increase in erect woody vegetation cover. During the 40 years spanning the two photo series, erect shrub and tree cover increased markedly on more than half of the land surface available for new colonization or infilling. Within the 7.2 km 2 analysed, areas with dense shrub and tree cover (>90%) increased from 34% to 44% whereas areas with low cover (<10%) shrank from 45% to 29%. This increase in cover of trees and shrubs occurred throughout the landscape regardless of altitude, slope angle and exposure, although to varying extents. The main shrub species involved in this increase was Betula glandulosa Michx. (dwarf birch), which was present in 98% and dominant in 85% of the 345 plots. In addition, numerous seedlings and saplings of Larix laricina (Du Roi) K Koch (eastern larch) were found above the treeline (25% of the plots), suggesting that the altitudinal treeline might shift upslope in the near future. Sites that remained devoid of erect woody vegetation in 2003 were either characterized by the absence of a suitable seedbed or by harsh local microclimatic conditions (wind exposure or excessive drainage). Our results indicate dramatic increases in shrub and tree cover at a Low Arctic site in Eastern Nunavik, contributing to a growing number of observations of woody vegetation change from various areas around the North.