Birds inhabiting hot, arid regions are among the terrestrial organisms most vulnerable to climate change. The potential for increasingly frequent and intense heat waves to cause lethal dehydration and hyperthermia is well documented, but the consequences of sublethal fitness costs associated with chronic exposure to sustained hot weather remain unclear. Using data for species occurring in southern Africa’s Kalahari Desert, we mapped exposure to acute lethal risks and chronic sublethal fitness costs under past, present, and future climates. For inactive birds in shaded microsites, the risks of lethal dehydration and hyperthermia will remain low during the 21st century. In contrast, exposure to conditions associated with chronic, sublethal costs related to progressive body mass loss, reduced nestling growth rates, or increased breeding failure will expand dramatically. For example, by the 2080s the region will experience 10–20 consecutive days per year on which Southern Pied Babblers (Turdoides bicolor) will lose ∼4% of body mass per day, conditions under which this species’ persistence will be extremely unlikely. Similarly, exposure to air temperature maxima associated with delayed fledging, reduced fledgling size, and breeding failure will increase several-fold in Southern Yellow-billed Hornbills (Tockus leucomelas) and Southern Fiscals (Lanius collaris). Our analysis reveals that sublethal costs of chronic heat exposure are likely to drive large declines in avian diversity in the southern African arid zone by the end of the century.

A proxy rainfall record for northeastern South Africa based on carbon isotope analysis of four baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) trees shows centennial and decadal scale variability over the last 1,000 years. The record is in good agreement with a 200-year tree ring record from Zimbabwe, and it indicates the existence of a rainfall dipole between the summer and winter rainfall areas of South Africa. The wettest period was c. AD 1075 in the Medieval Warm Period, and the driest periods were c. AD 1635, c. AD 1695 and c. AD1805 during the Little Ice Age. Decadal-scale variability suggests that the rainfall forcing mechanisms are a complex interaction between proximal and distal factors. Periods of higher rainfall are significantly associated with lower sea-surface temperatures in the Agulhas Current core region and a negative Dipole Moment Index in the Indian Ocean. The correlation between rainfall and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index is non-static. Wetter conditions are associated with predominantly El Niño conditions over most of the record, but since about AD 1970 this relationship inverted and wet conditions are currently associated with la Nina conditions. The effect of both proximal and distal oceanic influences are insufficient to explain the rainfall regime shift between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and the evidence suggests that this was the result of a northward shift of the subtropical westerlies rather than a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Intense heat waves are occurring more frequently, with concomitant increases in the risk of catastrophic avian mortality events via lethal dehydration or hyperthermia. We quantified the risks of lethal hyperthermia and dehydration for 10 Australian arid-zone avifauna species during the 21st century, by synthesizing thermal physiology data on evaporative water losses and heat tolerance limits. We evaluated risks of lethal hyperthermia or exceedance of dehydration tolerance limits in the absence of drinking during the hottest part of the day under recent climatic conditions, compared to those predicted for the end of this century across Australia. Increases in mortality risk via lethal dehydration and hyperthermia vary among the species modelled here but will generally increase greatly, particularly in smaller species (~10–42 g) and those inhabiting the far western parts of the continent. By 2100 CE, zebra finches’ potential exposure to acute lethal dehydration risk will reach ~ 100 d y−1 in the far northwest of Australia and will exceed 20 d y−1 over > 50% of this species’ current range. Risks of dehydration and hyperthermia will remain much lower for large non-passerines such as crested pigeons. Risks of lethal hyperthermia will also increase substantially for smaller species, particularly if they are forced to visit exposed water sources at very high air temperatures to avoid dehydration. An analysis of atlas data for zebra finches suggests that population declines associated with very hot conditions are already occurring in the hottest areas. Our findings suggest that the likelihood of persistence within current species ranges, and the potential for range shifts, will become increasingly constrained by temperature and access to drinking water. Our model adds to an increasing body of literature suggesting that arid environments globally will experience considerable losses of avifauna and biodiversity under unmitigated climate change scenarios.

The African baobab is the biggest and longest-living angiosperm tree. By using radiocarbon dating we identified the stable architectures that enable baobabs to reach large sizes and great ages. We report that 9 of the 13 oldest and 5 of the 6 largest individuals have died, or at least their oldest parts/stems have collapsed and died, over the past 12 years; the cause of the mortalities is still unclear.

The article reports the radiocarbon investigation results of the Lebombo Eco Trail tree, a representative African baobab from Mozambique. Several wood samples collected from the large inner cavity and from the outer part of the tree were investigated by AMS radiocarbon dating. According to dating results, the age values of all samples increase from the sampling point with the distance into the wood. For samples collected from the cavity walls, the increase of age values with the distance into the wood (up to a point of maximum age) represents a major anomaly. The only realistic explanation for this anomaly is that such inner cavities are, in fact, natural empty spaces between several fused stems disposed in a ring-shaped structure. We named them false cavities. Several important differences between normal cavities and false cavities are presented. Eventually, we dated other African baobabs with false inner cavities. We found that this new architecture enables baobabs to reach large sizes and old ages. The radiocarbon date of the oldest sample was 1425 ± 24 BP, which corresponds to a calibrated age of 1355 ± 15 yr. The dating results also show that the Lebombo baobab consists of five fused stems, with ages between 900 and 1400 years; these five stems build the complete ring. The ring and the false cavity closed 800–900 years ago. The results also indicate that the stems stopped growing toward the false cavity over the past 500 years.

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Abstract. Nile crocodile (Crocodilus niloticus) mass mortality events in the Olifants River between the Letaba River confluence in South Africa and Lake Massingir in Mozambique have been attributed to pansteatitis: a disease that affects fat depots of the animals. The disease is also found in sharptooth catfish (Clarias gariepinus) in the same area, and the cause of the disease is attributed to pollution. Although the Olifants River Valley is polluted, the impact of interventions such as dam construction on biodiversity receives little attention. We show that the onset of the pansteatitis epidemic in crocodiles and sharptooth catfish at the Olifants/Letaba confluence coincided with back-flooding of Lake Massingir that changed the Olifants River from a rock and sand substrate river to a clay substrate lake. Isotopic analysis shows that sharptooth catfish shifted from a predominantly vegetarian to a piscivorous diet that is highly correlated with pansteatitis prevalence, and crocodiles and tiger fish (Hydrocynus vittatus) show coincident trophic level increases. The evidence suggests that the ecosystem change altered the structure of the lotic foodweb and that an exotic or extralimital fish has invaded the confluence and is the vector of the pansteatitis epidemic. The invasive fish species is yet to be identified. The pansteatitis epidemic is an unintended ecological consequence of damming this river.

Savanna vegetation is characterized by tree-grass co-existence that can experience intense water limitation, yet the water relations of these savanna plants are poorly understood. We examined the water sources for trees and grasses in different seasons and investigated the importance of hydraulic redistribution in three tree species inhabiting a semi-arid savanna in South Africa. We used natural variation in H and O stable isotope composition of source waters to identify the principal water sources for these plants. We conducted an experiment by labelling deep-soil (2.5-m depth) with a deuterium tracer. Seasonal differences in the stable isotope composition of water in trees and grasses indicated that there was water-source use partitioning as well as overlap. Trees and grasses used water from the topsoil after rainfall indicating overlap of water-source use. All tree species shifted to groundwater or subsoil water use when there was no water in the topsoil indicating partitioning of water use. Grasses always used water from the topsoil. The seasonal changes in water-source use by trees and grasses indicated possible shifts in tree-grass interactions during different periods of the year. The tracer experiment confirmed hydraulic redistribution in all the three tree species and water transfer to grasses via the topsoil. However, this occurred only in the dry season. Our observations and experimental results indicate the potential for facilitation effects by trees to their understory grasses and show that dry season hydraulic redistribution from trees to grasses could be an important facilitative mechanism maintaining tree-grass co-existence in savannas.