Analysis of past and present stimulation projects reveals that the temporal evolution and growth of maximum observed moment magnitudes may be linked directly to the injected fluid volume and hydraulic energy. Overall evolution of seismic moment seems independent of the tectonic stress regime and is most likely governed by reservoir specific parameters, such as the preexisting structural inventory. Data suggest that magnitudes can grow either in a stable way, indicating the constant propagation of self‐arrested ruptures, or unbound, for which the maximum magnitude is only limited by the size of tectonic faults and fault connectivity. Transition between the two states may occur at any time during injection or not at all. Monitoring and traffic light systems used during stimulations need to account for the possibility of unstable rupture propagation from the very beginning of injection by observing the entire seismicity evolution in near‐real time and at high resolution for an immediate reaction in injection strategy.

Various geophysical observations show that seismic and aseismic slip on a fault may occur concurrently. We analyze microseismicity recordings from a temporary near-fault seismic network and borehole strainmeter data from the eastern Marmara region in northwest Turkey to track seismic and aseismic deformation around the hypocentral region of an Mw 4.5 earthquake in 2018. A slow transient is observed that lasted about 30 days starting at the time of the Mw 4.5 event. We study about 1200 microseismic events that occurred during 417 days after the Mw 4.5 event around the mainshock fault rupture. The seismicity reveals a strong temporal clustering, including four episodic seismic sequences, each containing more than 30 events per day. Seismicity from the first two sequences displayed typical characteristics driven by aseismic slip and/or fluids, such as the activation of a broader region around the mainshock and swarm-like topology. The third and fourth sequences correspond to typical mainshock–aftershock sequences. These observations suggest that slow slip and potentially fluid diffusion along the fault plane could have controlled the seismicity during the initial 150 days following the Mw 4.5 event. In contrast, stress redistribution and breaking of remaining asperities may have caused the activity after the initial 150 days. Our observation from a newly installed combined dense seismic and borehole strainmeter network follows an earlier observation of a slow transient occurring in conjunction with enhanced local seismic moment release in the same region. This suggests a frequent interaction of seismic and aseismic slip in the Istanbul–Marmara seismic gap.

We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity during a sequence of moderate (an Mw 4.7 foreshock and Mw 5.8 mainshock) earthquakes occurring in September 2019 at the transition between a creeping and a locked segment of the North Anatolian fault in the central Sea of Marmara, northwest Turkey. To investigate in detail the seismicity evolution, we apply a matched-filter technique to continuous waveforms, thus reducing the magnitude threshold for detection. Sequences of foreshocks preceding the two largest events are clearly seen, exhibiting two different behaviors: a long-term activation of the seismicity along the entire fault segment and a short-term concentration around the epicenters of the large events. We suggest a two-scale preparation phase, with aseismic slip preparing the mainshock final rupture a few days before, and a cascade mechanism leading to the nucleation of the mainshock. Thus, our study shows a combination of seismic and aseismic slip during the foreshock sequence changing the strength of the fault, bringing it closer to failure.

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Preparatory mechanisms accompanying or leading to nucleation of larger earthquakes have been observed at both laboratory and field scales, but conditions favoring the occurrence of observable preparatory processes are still largely unknown. In particular, it remains a matter of debate why some earthquakes occur spontaneously without noticeable precursors as opposed to events that are preceded by an extended failure process. In this study, we have generated new high‐resolution seismicity catalogs framing the occurrence of 20 ML > 2.5 earthquakes at The Geysers geothermal field in California. To this end, a seismicity catalog of the 11 days framing each large event was created. We selected 20 sequences sampling different hypocentral depths and hydraulic conditions within the field. Seismic activity and magnitude frequency distributions displayed by the different earthquake sequences are correlated with their location within the reservoir. Sequences located in the northwestern part of the reservoir show overall increased seismic activity and low b values, while the southeastern part is dominated by decreased seismic activity and higher b values. Periods of high injection coincide with high b values and vice versa. These observations potentially reflect varying differential and mean stresses and damage of the reservoir rocks across the field. About 50% of analyzed sequences exhibit no change in seismicity rate in response to the large main event. However, we find complex waveforms at the onset of the main earthquake, suggesting that small ruptures spontaneously grow into or trigger larger events.

Geothermal reservoir production and associated induced seismicity may experience pronounced attention in the near future, given the ambitious plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions toward a carbon-neutral economy and society. At some geothermal sites, the occurrence of hazard- and risk-prone induced earthquakes caused by or associated with reservoir stimulation has resulted in project shutdown (e.g., Pohang, South Korea, and Basel Deep Heat Mining, Switzerland). At other geothermal sites, the maximum event magnitudes were successfully maintained below a threshold defined by local authorities (e.g., Helsinki St1 Deep Heat project in Helsinki, Finland). In this study, we review some of our results from seismological and geomechanical reservoir characterization at The Geysers geothermal reservoir in California, USA, the largest producing geothermal field worldwide. We relate our findings to other geothermal sites to better understand the variability of reservoir behavior. In particular, we obtain a constant and relatively low seismic injection efficiency at The Geysers, which is interpreted to be related to the large energy dissipation through thermal processes and additional dissipation through aseismic slip, the latter now being considered to play a fundamental role in earthquake nucleation. We discuss some characteristics of the seismicity from The Geysers that suggest stable reservoir seismic injection efficiency and possibly low potential to rupture into large induced earthquakes, reducing the associated seismic hazard.

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<p>Recent laboratory and field observations show that fault seismic and aseismic slip may occur concurrently. Here, we combine microseismicity recordings from a temporary near-fault seismic network (SMARTnet) and borehole strainmeter data from the eastern Marmara region in NW Turkey to track seismic and aseismic deformation around the hypocentral region of a M<sub>W</sub> 4.5 earthquake that occurred in 2018. The strainmeter data show a clear strain signal transient starting at the time of the M<sub>W</sub> 4.5 event and lasting for about 150 days. We study about 1,200 microseismic events following the mainshock within and beyond the mainshock fault rupture. The temporal distribution of the seismicity reveals a strong temporal clustering, including four semi-periodic seismic sequences each containing more than 50 events in two days. Two seismic sequences occurred during the strain transient showing different characteristics compared to two sequences occurring afterwards. Seismicity occurring during the transient displayed typical characteristics driven by aseismic slip, such as the activation of a broader region from the mainshock, and the absence of a clear mainshock in each sequence. Seismic sequences occurring after the transient correspond to typical mainshock-aftershock sequences and activated a region closer to the original M<sub>W</sub> 4.5 mainshock. We suggest post-strain transient seismicity originate from stress redistribution and breaking of remaining asperities. Our observations from a newly installed combined dense seismic and strainmeter network in the eastern Sea of Marmara region allows identifying repeated triggering of aseismic transients within an observation period of three years suggesting these may occur more often than previously thought.</p>