Organ failure in acute pancreatitis can be predicted with high accuracy at hospital admission using a combination of plasma interleukin 10 and serum calcium measurements.

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It has been suggested that excessive activation of the anti-inflammatory pathways in sepsis may lead to poor outcome of patients with sepsis. The aim of this study was to test the value of histocompatibility leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR-expression on blood monocytes and plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-4 and -10 in prediction of hospital mortality in patients with sepsis. Sixty-one critically ill patients with sepsis were prospectively enrolled to this study in two university hospital intensive care units. Survivors (n = 41) and nonsurvivors (n = 20) differed significantly in HLA-DR expression at admission: survivors' median 84% (interquartile range 64%-98%) versus nonsurvivors' median 62% (interquartile range 47%-83%, P = 0.025 by Mann-Whitney test). Similarly, the analysis revealed statistically significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors in admission plasma IL-10 levels and in admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores, but not in IL-4 levels. The areas under receiver operating curves (AUC) showed that both monocyte HLA-DR expression and plasma IL-4 level showed poor discriminative power in prediction of hospital mortality (AUC < 0.70). Only IL-10 levels on days 1 and 2 showed reasonable predictive power (AUCs 0.706 and 0.725, respectively). The highest AUC values were those of APACHE-II (0.786) and admission SOFA score (0.763). In conclusion, APACHE II and SOFA scores on admission showed better discriminatory power than HLA-DR expression and IL-10 and IL-4 levels in prediction of hospital mortality in critically ill patients with sepsis.

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Systemic inflammation triggered by insults like sepsis and acute pancreatitis may play a role in development of indirect acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Because little is known about the course of systemic inflammation on the days preceding diagnosis of ARDS, we prospectively monitored immune inflammatory status in 52 patients at risk and we assessed the presence of ALI and ARDS on day 7 after admission to the intensive care unit. On admission, serum interleukin (IL) 8, IL-6, and soluble IL-2 receptor concentrations were significantly higher in patients with subsequent ALI (n = 18) than in patients without ALI (n = 30). During a 4-day follow-up, IL-8 and IL-6 levels of ALI patients remained high and those of non-ALI patients decreased. None of the markers discriminated ARDS patients (n = 9) from non-ARDS ALI patients (n = 9). Among 11 patients with acute pancreatitis, ALI patients had significantly higher IL-8, IL-6, and phagocyte CD11b expression levels than did non-ALI patients, whereas among 14 patients with massive transfusion, respective findings in ALI and non-ALI patients were comparable. Results give credence to the view that systemic inflammation plays a role in development of ALI triggered by pancreatitis, but not in that by massive transfusion. This finding, if confirmed in studies with sufficient statistical power, suggests that the patients with massive transfusion do not necessarily benefit from novel biotherapies aimed at altering the course of systemic inflammation.