BackgroundA previous analysis of the impact of drought in Africa on HIV demonstrated an 11% greater prevalence in HIV-endemic rural areas attributable to local rainfall shocks. The Lesotho Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (LePHIA) was conducted after the severe drought of 2014–2016, allowing for reevaluation of this relationship in a setting of expanded antiretroviral coverage.Methods and findingsLePHIA selected a nationally representative sample between November 2016 and May 2017. All adults aged 15–59 years in randomly selected households were invited to complete an interview and HIV testing, with one woman per household eligible to answer questions on their experience of sexual violence. Deviations in rainfall for May 2014–June 2016 were estimated using precipitation data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS), with drought defined as <15% of the average rainfall from 1981 to 2016. The association between drought and risk behaviors as well as HIV-related outcomes was assessed using logistic regression, incorporating complex survey weights. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, and geography (urban versus rural). All of Lesotho suffered from reduced rainfall, with regions receiving 1%–36% of their historical rainfall. Of the 12,887 interviewed participants, 93.5% (12,052) lived in areas that experienced drought, with the majority in rural areas (7,281 versus 4,771 in urban areas). Of the 835 adults living in areas without drought, 520 were in rural areas and 315 in urban. Among females 15–19 years old, living in a rural drought area was associated with early sexual debut (odds ratio [OR] 3.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43–6.74, p = 0.004), and higher HIV prevalence (OR 2.77, 95% CI 1.19–6.47, p = 0.02). It was also associated with lower educational attainment in rural females ages 15–24 years (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.25–0.78, p = 0.005). Multivariable analysis adjusting for household wealth and sexual behavior showed that experiencing drought increased the odds of HIV infection among females 15–24 years old (adjusted OR [aOR] 1.80, 95% CI 0.96–3.39, p = 0.07), although this was not statistically significant. Migration was associated with 2-fold higher odds of HIV infection in young people (aOR 2.06, 95% CI 1.25–3.40, p = 0.006). The study was limited by the extensiveness of the drought and the small number of participants in the comparison group.ConclusionsDrought in Lesotho was associated with higher HIV prevalence in girls 15–19 years old in rural areas and with lower educational attainment and riskier sexual behavior in rural females 15–24 years old. Policy-makers may consider adopting potential mechanisms to mitigate the impact of income shock from natural disasters on populations vulnerable to HIV transmission.

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Summary Background HIV acquisition remains high among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW, aged 15–24 years) in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to estimate prevalence and incidence of HIV in AGYW and to identify correlates of HIV infection by using data from the Lesotho Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (LePHIA). Methods LePHIA was a nationally representative survey of adults and children based on a multistage cluster sampling method with random selection of enumeration areas and households. All adults aged 15 years and older who had slept in the household the night before were eligible for participation; participants completed an interview and HIV testing. We estimated incidence with the HIV-1 limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay combined with viral load and examined the association between demographic and behavioural variables (including characteristics of cohabitating mothers and sexual partners, when available) and prevalence and incidence among AGYW using logistic regression, incorporating survey weights. Findings We interviewed 8824 households, including 2358 AGYW who were tested for HIV infection. Weighted HIV prevalence was 11·1% (95% CI 9·7–12·5) in the overall population (273 of 2358 AGYW), 5–7% (4·1–7·2) in adolescent girls aged 15–19 years (64 of 1156), and 16·7% (14·4—19·0) in women aged 20–24 years (209 of 1212). Annualised HIV incidence was 1–8% (0·8–2·8). Correlates of prevalent infection include reporting a history of anal sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3·08, 1·11–8·57), having lived outside Lesotho in the past year (1·86, 1·01–3·42), having a partner suspected or known to be HIV positive (11·7, 6·0–22·5), and having two or more lifetime sexual partners (1·84, 1·21–2·78, for 2–3 lifetime sexual partners; 2·44, 1·45–4·08, for ≥4 lifetime sexual partners). For the 570 AGYW living with their mothers, maternal education was negatively associated with HIV prevalence in their daughters (aOR 0·36, 0·15–0·82, per increase in level attended). For AGYW with a cohabitating partner, the factors associated with AGYW infection were partner age (OR 4·54, 1·30–15·80, for partners aged 35–49 years, although the OR was no longer significant when adjusted for HIV status of partner), HIV status (aOR 11·22, 4·05–31·05), lack of viral load suppression (OR 0·16, 0·04–0·66), and partner employment in the past year (aOR 3·41, 1·12–10·42). Interpretation The findings confirm the importance of improving the treatment cascade in male partners and targeting preventive interventions to AGYW who are at increased risk. A regional approach to prevention could mitigate the effect of migration on transnational spread of HIV.

Nigeria is one of the fastest growing African economies, yet struggles with armed conflict, poverty, and morbidity. An area of high concern is how this situation affects vulnerable families and their children. A key pathway in improving the situation for children in times of conflict is to reinforce maternal agency, for instance, through education. However, the state of the art of research lacks a clear understanding of how many years of education is needed before children benefit. Due to mother’s differing social context and ability, the effect of maternal education varies. We study the heterogeneous treatment effects of maternal agency, here operationalized as length of education, on severe child undernutrition in the context of armed conflict. We deploy a repeated cross-sectional study design, using the Nigeria 2008 and 2013 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The sample covers 25,917 children and their respective mothers. A key methodological challenge is to estimate this heterogeneity inductively. The causal inference literature proposes a machine learning approach, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), as a promising avenue to overcome this challenge. Based on BART-estimation of the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) this study confirms earlier findings in that maternal education decreases severe child undernutrition, but only when mothers acquire an education that lasts more than the country’s compulsory 9 years; that is 10 years of education and higher. This protective effect remains even during the exposure of armed conflict.

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