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Recurrence plot based time series analysis is widely used to study changes and transitions in the dynamics of a system or temporal deviations from its overall dynamical regime. However, most studies do not discuss the significance of the detected variations in the recurrence quantification measures. In this letter we propose a novel method to add a confidence measure to the recurrence quantification analysis. We show how this approach can be used to study significant changes in dynamical systems due to a change in control parameters, chaos-order as well as chaos-chaos transitions. Finally we study and discuss climate transitions by analysing a marine proxy record for past sea surface temperature. This paper is dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the introduction of recurrence plots.

Recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) is an established tool for data analysis in various behavioural sciences. In this article we present a refined notion of RQA based on order patterns. The use of order patterns is commonplace in time series analysis. Exploiting this concept in combination with recurrence plots (RP) and their quantification (RQA) allows for advances in contemporary EEG research, specifically in the analysis of event related potentials (ERP), as the method is known to be robust against non-stationary data. The use of order patterns recurrence plots (OPRPs) on EEG data recorded during a language processing experiment exemplifies the potentials of the method. We could show that the application of RQA to ERP data allows for a considerable reduction of the number of trials required in ERP research while still maintaining statistical validity.

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