Excitation-inhibition (E:I) imbalance is theorized as an important pathophysiological mechanism in autism. Autism affects males more frequently than females and sex-related mechanisms (e.g., X-linked genes, androgen hormones) can influence E:I balance. This suggests that E:I imbalance may affect autism differently in males versus females. With a combination of in-silico modeling and in-vivo chemogenetic manipulations in mice, we first show that a time-series metric estimated from fMRI BOLD signal, the Hurst exponent (H), can be an index for underlying change in the synaptic E:I ratio. In autism we find that H is reduced, indicating increased excitation, in the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) of autistic males but not females. Increasingly intact MPFC H is also associated with heightened ability to behaviorally camouflage social-communicative difficulties, but only in autistic females. This work suggests that H in BOLD can index synaptic E:I ratio and that E:I imbalance affects autistic males and females differently.

Postmortem studies have revealed increased density of excitatory synapses in the brains of individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), with a putative link to aberrant mTOR-dependent synaptic pruning. ASD is also characterized by atypical macroscale functional connectivity as measured with resting-state fMRI (rsfMRI). These observations raise the question of whether excess of synapses causes aberrant functional connectivity in ASD. Using rsfMRI, electrophysiology and in silico modelling in Tsc2 haploinsufficient mice, we show that mTOR-dependent increased spine density is associated with ASD -like stereotypies and cortico-striatal hyperconnectivity. These deficits are completely rescued by pharmacological inhibition of mTOR. Notably, we further demonstrate that children with idiopathic ASD exhibit analogous cortical-striatal hyperconnectivity, and document that this connectivity fingerprint is enriched for ASD-dysregulated genes interacting with mTOR or Tsc2. Finally, we show that the identified transcriptomic signature is predominantly expressed in a subset of children with autism, thereby defining a segregable autism subtype. Our findings causally link mTOR-related synaptic pathology to large-scale network aberrations, revealing a unifying multi-scale framework that mechanistically reconciles developmental synaptopathy and functional hyperconnectivity in autism.