Prediction behavior was studied in a context of complexly patterned binary sequences. Sequences were generated from nonstationary, event-contingent, partially random sources. A variable of major importance was the presence or absence of a displayed history of the last eight events in the sequence. Evidence was found that people seek and find order to some degree in the environment. The process by which order is sought and found is discussed. Briefly, Ss do not attempt to analyze the sequence formally, but they respond to recurrent patterns. Those sources where relations between events were important were much more difficult to learn than were sheer frequency or location, and not relations, were important.
The broad purpose of this research was the investigation of the relationship between decision-making success and the likelihood of being voted "leader" (group decision maker) of a 3-man group. Markov models, based on extensions of concepts used in mathematical learning theory, provided the theoretical framework. Each trial of the experiment began with the selection of a leader by group vote, and ended after the designated leader made a decision for the group. Obtained and predicted results were compared for voting shifts, asymptotic leadership and state proportions, and learning trends. 5 different reinforcement groups were run and in only 1 of these groups were there major discrepancies between actual and expected results.
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