ABSTRACT. This case study from northeastern Alberta, Canada, demonstrates a fundamentally different approach to forest management in which stakeholders balance conservation and economic objectives by weighing current management options from the point of view of their long-term effects on the forest. ALCES®, a landscape-scale simulation model, is used to quantify the effects of the current regulatory framework and typical industrial practices on a suite of ecological and economic indicators over the next 100 yr. These simulations suggest that, if current practices continue, the combined activities of the energy and forestry industries in our 59,000 km 2 study area will cause the density of edge of human origin to increase from 1.8 km/km 2 to a maximum of 8.0 km/km 2 . We also predict that older age classes of merchantable forest stands will be largely eliminated from the landscape, habitat availability for woodland caribou will decline from 43 to 6%, and there will be a progressive shortfall in the supply of softwood timber beginning in approximately 60 yr. Additional simulations involving a suite of "best practices" demonstrate that substantial improvements in ecological outcome measures could be achieved through alternative management scenarios while still maintaining a sustainable flow of economic benefits. We discuss the merits of our proposed approach to land use planning and apply it to the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.
Selection will result in observable changes in traits only if it acts consistently in space and time, but few estimates of selection in natural populations have been temporally replicated. Here we estimate viability selection on nestling growth rates for 13 cohorts (1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001) of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) from a natural population located in southwestern Yukon, Canada. Directional selection on nestling growth rates varied in magnitude and direction from one cohort to the next. The magnitude of directional selection was relatively weak in most years (median Ј ϭ 0.24), but there were episodes of very strong viability selection (Ј Ͼ 0.5) in some cohorts. We found no evidence of significant stabilizing or disruptive selection on this trait. Examination of viability selection episodes over shorter time periods suggested that the strength of selection on juveniles in this population was positively related to the time scale over which selection was measured. Viability selection from birth to emergence from the natal nest (50 days of age) and from emergence to successful recruitment (100 days of age) were positively correlated, but were both independent of selection on nestling growth rates from recruitment to potential breeding age (one year). The strength of directional selection on growth rates prior to recruitment was negatively correlated with spring temperature whereas selection from recruitment to breeding was positively correlated with the abundance of spruce cones produced in the previous fall. Episodes of strong directional selection from birth to breeding age appear to be due to potentially rare combinations of environmental conditions. As a result, predicting the occurrence of very strong episodes of selection will be extremely difficult, but predicting the microevolutionary responses to observed selection on individual cohorts remains feasible.
Maternal effects are widespread and can have dramatic influences on evolutionary dynamics, but their genetic basis has been measured rarely in natural populations. We used cross-fostering techniques and a long-term study of a natural population of red squirrels, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus, to estimate both direct (heritability) and indirect (maternal) influences on the potential for evolution. Juvenile growth in both body mass and size had significant amounts of genetic variation (mass h 2 ϭ 0.10; size h 2 ϭ 0.33), but experienced large, heritable maternal effects. Growth in body mass also had a large positive covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects. The consideration of these indirect genetic effects revealed a greater than three-fold increase in the potential for evolution of growth in body mass ( ϭ 0.36) relative to that predicted by heritability alone. Simple heritabilities, therefore, may severely 2 h t underestimate or overestimate the potential for evolution in natural populations of animals.
White spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) cone crops were measured from 1986 to 2011 in the Kluane region of southwestern Yukon to test the hypothesis that the size of cone crops could be predicted from spring and summer temperature and rainfall of years t, t – 1, and t – 2. We counted cones in the top 3 m of an average of 700 white spruce trees each year spread over 3–14 sites along 210 km of the Alaska Highway and the Haines Highway. We tested the conventional explanation for white spruce cone crops that implicates summer temperatures and rainfall in years t and t – 1 and rejected it, since it explained very little of the variation in our 26 years of data. We used exploratory data analysis with robust multiple regressions coupled with Akaike’s information criterion corrected (AICc) analysis to determine the best statistical model to predict the size of cone crops. We could statistically explain 54% of the variation in cone crops from July and August temperatures of years t – 1 and t – 2 and May precipitation of year t – 2. There was no indication of a periodicity in cone crops, and years of large cone crops were synchronous over the Kluane region with few exceptions. This is the first quantitative model developed for the prediction of white spruce cone crops in the Canadian boreal forest and has the surprising result that weather conditions 2 years prior to the cone crop are the most significant predictors.
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