No abstract

Our objective in this paper is to measure the impact (valence, volume, and variance) of national online user reviews on designated market area (DMA)-level local geographic box office performance of movies. We account for three complications with analyses that use national-level aggregate box office data: (i) aggregation across heterogeneous markets (spatial aggregation), (ii) serial correlation as a result of sequential release of movies (endogenous rollout), and (iii) serial correlation as a result of other unobserved components that could affect inferences regarding the impact of user reviews. We use daily box office ticket sales data for 148 movies released in the United States during a 16-month period (out of the 874 movies released) along with user review data from the Yahoo! Movies website. The analysis also controls for other possible box office drivers. Our identification strategy rests on our ability to identify plausible instruments for user ratings by exploiting the sequential release of movies across markets--because user reviews can only come from markets where the movie has previously been released, exogenous variables from previous markets would be appropriate instruments in subsequent markets. In contrast with previous studies that have found that the main driver of box office performance is the volume of reviews, we find that it is the valence that seems to matter and not the volume. Furthermore, ignoring the endogenous rollout decision does not seem to have a big impact on the results from our DMA-level analysis. When we carry out our analysis with aggregated national data, we obtain the same results as those from previous studies, i.e., that volume matters but not the valence. Using various market-level controls in the national data model, we attempt to identify the source of this difference. By conducting our empirical analysis at the DMA level and accounting for prerelease advertising, we can classify DMAs based on their responsiveness to firm-initiated marketing effort (advertising) and consumer-generated marketing (online word of mouth). A unique feature of our study is that it allows marketing managers to assess a DMA's responsiveness along these two dimensions. The substantive insights can help studios and distributors evaluate their future product rollout strategies. Although our empirical analysis is conducted using motion picture industry data, our approach to addressing the endogeneity of reviews is generalizable to other industry settings where products are sequentially rolled out.online word of mouth, sequential new product release, endogeneity, instrumental variables, generalized method of moments, motion pictures

Decision making by physicians on patients' treatment has come under increased public scrutiny. In fact, there is a fair amount of debate on the effects of marketing actions of pharmaceutical firms toward physicians and their impact on physician prescription behavior. While some scholars find a strong and positive influence of marketing actions, some find only moderate effects, and others even find negative effects. Debate is also mounting on the role of other influencers (such as patient requests) in physician decision making, both on prescriptions and sample dispensing. The authors argue that one factor that may tip the balance in this debate is the role of drug characteristics, such as a drug's effectiveness and a drug's side effects. Using a unique data set, they show that marketing efforts--operationalized as detailing and symposium meetings of firms to physicians--and patient requests do affect physician decision making differentially across brands. Moreover, they find that the responsiveness of physicians' decision making to marketing efforts and patient requests depends upon the drug's effectiveness and side effects. This paper presents clear guidelines for public policy and managerial practice and envisions that the study of the role of drug characteristics, such as effectiveness and side effects, may lead to valuable insights in this surging public debate.physician decision making, marketing effort, patient request, drug effectiveness, side effect, drug prescription, sampling, sample dispensing, detailing, pharmaceuticals, public policy

Firms are increasingly sourcing innovation from their supply chain partners. Meanwhile, supply chains have evolved into complex networks, which complicates the role that supply chain partners play in innovation and financial performance of firms. Previous research has mainly focused on the direct effect of innovation on a firm's financial performance, overlooking the innovativeness and complexity of supply networks. In this research, we focus on a firm's supply base, defined as the first tier of a supply network, and investigate the relationship between the intensity of R&D within the supply base and the financial performance of the focal firm. We also examine the moderating role of three aspects of supply base complexity-Number of suppliers, differentiation, and interrelationships among suppliers. Utilizing secondary data from Bloomberg and Compustat, we find that the R&D intensity of a firm's supply base is positively associated with the firm's financial performance. Further, all three aspects of supply base complexity negatively moderate this relationship. These findings make important contributions to the literature by establishing a direct, positive relationship between supply base R&D and firm financial performance, which is attenuated by complexities within the supply base.

We measure the effects of pre- and postrelease blog volume, blog valence, and advertising on the performance of 75 movies in 208 geographic markets in the United States. We attribute the variation in blog effects across markets to differences in demographic characteristics of markets combined with differences across demographic groups in their access and exposure to blogs as well as their responsiveness conditional on access. We study the effects of prerelease factors on opening day box office performance and of pre- and postrelease factors on box office performance one month after release. Our estimation accounts for confounding factors in the measurement of these effects via the use of instrumental variables. We find considerable heterogeneity in the effects across consumer- and firm-generated media and across geographic markets, with gender, income, race, and age driving across-market differences. Release day performance is impacted most by prerelease blog volume and advertising, whereas postrelease performance is influenced by postrelease blog valence and advertising. Across markets, there is more variance in advertising and blog valence (postrelease) elasticities than there is in blog volume (prerelease) elasticities. We identify the top 20 markets in terms of their elasticities to each of these three instruments. Further, we classify markets in terms of their sensitivities across these three instruments to identify the most sensitive markets that studios can target with their limited release strategies. Finally, we characterize the extent to which studios could have improved their limited release strategies by identifying the overlap between the actual release markets and the most responsive ones. We find that at the time of first-release studios cover only 53% of the most responsive advertising markets and 44% of the most responsive markets to prerelease blog volume in their limited release strategies, implying considerable room for improvement if these were the only metrics to assess those strategies. This paper was accepted by Gérard P. Cachon, marketing.