The high replication and mutation rates of RNA viruses can result in the emergence of new epidemic variants. Thus, the ability to follow host-specific evolutionary trajectories of viruses is essential to predict and prevent epidemics. By studying the spatial and temporal evolution of chikungunya virus during natural transmission between mosquitoes and mammals, we have identified viral evolutionary intermediates prior to emergence. Analysis of virus populations at anatomical barriers revealed that the mosquito midgut and salivary gland pose population bottlenecks. By focusing on virus subpopulations in the saliva of multiple mosquito strains, we recapitulated the emergence of a recent epidemic strain of chikungunya and identified E1 glycoprotein mutations with potential to emerge in the future. These mutations confer fitness advantages in mosquito and mammalian hosts by altering virion stability and fusogenic activity. Thus, virus evolutionary trajectories can be predicted and studied in the short term before new variants displace currently circulating strains.

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As well as being distributed widely in human populations, hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections occur frequently in chimpanzee, gibbon and other ape populations in sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. To investigate the frequency and genetic relationships of HBV infecting gibbons in Cambodia, pileated gibbons (Hylobates pileatus) that were originally wild-caught were screened for surface antigen. Twelve of 26 (46 %) were positive, of which 11 were positive for HBV DNA. Phylogenetic analysis of complete genome sequences revealed two distinct genetic groups in the gibbon/orangutan clade. Three were similar to previously described variants infecting H. pileatus in Thailand and eight formed a distinct clade, potentially representing distinct strains of HBV circulating in geographically separated populations in South-East Asia. Because of the ability of HBV to cross species barriers, large reservoirs of infection in gibbons may hamper ongoing attempts at permanent eradication of HBV infection from human populations in South-East Asia through immunization.