Assessing flood risk is challenging due to complex interactions among flood susceptibility, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability parameters. This study presents a novel flood risk assessment framework by utilizing a hybridized deep neural network (DNN) and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) models. Bangladesh was selected as a case study region, where limited studies examined flood risk at a national scale.The results exhibited that hybridized DNN and fuzzy AHP models can produce the most accurate flood risk map while comparing among 15 different models. About 20.45% of Bangladesh are at flood risk zones of moderate, high, and very high severity. The northeastern region, as well as areas adjacent to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers, have high flood damage potential, where a significant number of people were affected during the 2020 flood event. The risk assessment framework developed in this study would help policymakers formulate a comprehensive flood risk management system.
Different epidemiological compartmental models have been presented to predict the transmission dynamics of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which is the most burning issue all over the world right now. In this study, we have proposed a new fuzzy rule-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death (SEIRD) compartmental model to delineate the intervention and transmission heterogeneity in China, New Zealand, United States and Bangladesh for SARS-CoV-2 viral infection. We have introduced a new dynamic fuzzy transmission possibility variable in the compartmental model. Through our model, we have presented the correspondence of the intervention measures in relaxing the transmission possibility. We estimated that the peak in the US might arrive during the last half of August and for Bangladesh, it might occur during the first half of August, 2020 if current intervention measures are not violated. We have modeled a prediction scenario for Bangladesh if current intervention measures are violated due to Eid-ul-Azha. We further investigated what might happen if Bangladesh government reopens everything from September, 2020. We suggested various effective epidemic control policies for the authority of Bangladesh to fight against the virus. We concluded analyzing the current scenario of Bangladesh suggesting that extensive tests must be carried out collecting more samples of the asymptomatic individuals along with the symptomatic cases and also proper isolation and quarantine measures should be maintained strictly to contain the epidemic sooner.
Recently COVID-19 pandemic has affected the whole world quite seriously. The number of new infectious cases and death cases are rapidly increasing over time. In this study, a theoretical linguistic fuzzy rule-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Isolated-Recovered (SEIIsR) compartmental model has been proposed to predict the dynamics of the transmission of COVID-19 over time considering population immunity and infectiousness heterogeneity based on viral load in the model. The model’s equilibrium points have been calculated and stability analysis of the model’s equilibrium points has been conducted. Consequently, the fuzzy basic reproduction number, R0f of the fuzzy model has been formulated. Finally, the temporal dynamics of different compartmental populations with immunity and infectiousness heterogeneity using the fuzzy Mamdani model are delineated and some disease control policies have been suggested to get over the infection in no time.
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