This paper proposes a new hybrid approach, based on the combination of parametric and nonparametric models by adopting wavelet estimation approach, to model and predict the price electricity for Nord Pool market. Our hybrid methodology consists into two steps. The first step aims at modeling the conditional mean of the time series, using a generalized fractional model with k‐factor of Gegenbauer termed the k‐factor GARMA model; the parameters of this model are estimated using the wavelet approach based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT). The second step aims at estimating the conditional variance, so we adopt the local linear wavelet neural network (LLWNN) model. The proposed hybrid model is tested using the hourly log‐returns of electricity spot price from the Nord Pool market. The empirical results were compared with the predictions of the ARFIMA–LLWNN, the k‐factor GARMA–FIGARCH and the individual LLWNN models. It is shown that the proposed hybrid k‐factor GARMA–LLWNN model outperforms all other competing methods. Hence it is a robust tool in forecasting time series.
This study investigates the performance of a novel neural network technique in the problem of price forecasting. To improve the prediction accuracy using each model’s unique features, this research proposes a hybrid approach that combines the -factor GARMA process, empirical wavelet transform and the local linear wavelet neural network (LLWNN) methods, to form the GARMA-WLLWNN process. In order to verify the validity of the model and the algorithm, the performance of the proposed model is evaluated using data from Polish electricity markets, and it is compared with the dual generalized long memory -factor GARMA-G-GARCH model and the individual WLLWNN. The empirical results demonstrated the proposed hybrid model can achieve a better predicting performance and prove that is the most suitable electricity market forecasting technique.
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