Integrating both modeling approach and stakeholders’ perspectives to derive past and future trends of land use land cover (LULC) is a key to creating more realistic results on LULC change trajectories and can lead to the implementation of appropriate management measures. This article assessed the past changes of LULC in the Mono River catchment using Landsat images from the years 1986, 2000, 2010, and 2020 by performing Machine Learning Classification Method Random Forest (RF) technique, and using Markov Chain method and stakeholder’s perspective to simulate future LULC changes for the years 2030 and 2050. LULC was classified as savanna, cropland, forest, water bodies, and settlement. The results showed that croplands and forests areas declined from 2020 to 2050 with decreases of −7.8% and −1.9%, respectively, a modest increase in settlement (1.3%), and savanna was the dominant LULC in the study region with an increase of 8.5%. From stakeholders’ perspective, rapid population growth, deforestation, rainfall variability/flood, urbanization, and agricultural expansion were the most important drivers associated with the observed LULC changes in the area. Other factors, such as lack of political commitment, distance to river, and elevation were also mentioned. Additionally, most the land-use scenarios identified by stakeholders would intensify land degradation and reduce ecosystem services in the area. By considering all of these potential LULC changes, decision-makers need to develop and implement appropriate solutions (e.g., land use planning strategies, reforestation campaigns, forest protection measures) in order to limit the negative effects of future LULC changes.
Soil salinity is a major issue causing land degradation in coastal areas. In this study, we assessed the land use and soil salinity changes in Djilor district (Senegal) using remote sensing and field data. We performed land use land cover changes for the years 1984, 1994, 2007, and 2017. Electrical conductivity was measured from 300 soil samples collected at the study area; this, together with elevation, distance to river, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Salinity Index (SI), and Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), was used to build the salinity model using a multiple regression analysis. Supervised classification and intensity analysis were applied to determine the annual change area and the variation of gains and losses. The results showed that croplands recorded the highest gain (17%) throughout the period 1984–2017, while forest recorded 3%. The fastest annual area of change occurred during the period 1984–1994. The salinity model showed a high potential for mapping saline areas (R2 = 0.73 and RMSE = 0.68). Regarding salinity change, the slightly saline areas (2 < EC < 4 dS/m) increased by 42% whereas highly saline (EC > 8 dS/m) and moderately saline (4 < EC < 8 dS/m) areas decreased by 23% and 26%, respectively, in 2017. Additionally, the increasing salt content is less dominant in vegetated areas compared with non-vegetated areas. Nonetheless, the highly concentrated salty areas can be restored using salt-resistant plants (e.g., Eucalyptus sp., Tamarix sp.). This study gives more insights on land use planning and salinity management for improving farmers’ resilience in coastal regions.
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