We introduce a new Bayesian clustering algorithm for studying population structure using individually geo-referenced multilocus data sets. The algorithm is based on the concept of hidden Markov random field, which models the spatial dependencies at the cluster membership level. We argue that (i) a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure can implement the algorithm efficiently, (ii) it can detect significant geographical discontinuities in allele frequencies and regulate the number of clusters, (iii) it can check whether the clusters obtained without the use of spatial priors are robust to the hypothesis of discontinuous geographical variation in allele frequencies, and (iv) it can reduce the number of loci required to obtain accurate assignments. We illustrate and discuss the implementation issues with the Scandinavian brown bear and the human CEPH diversity panel data set.

The analyses in the extended follow-up strengthen the results previously observed among French uranium miners about their excess risk of mortality and its association with their occupational IR exposure.

The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI <0.1-4) leukemia case (all in excess of risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

Summary1. Ecological data such as biomasses often present a high proportion of zeros with possible skewed positive values. The Delta-Gamma (DG) approach, which models separately the presence-absence and the positive biomass, is commonly used in ecology. A less commonly known alternative is the compound Poisson-gamma (CPG) approach, which essentially mimics the process of capturing clusters of biomass during a sampling event.2. Regardless of the approach, the effort involved in obtaining a sample (henceforth called the sampling volume, but could also include swept areas, sampling durations, etc.), which can potentially be quite variable between samples, needs to be taken into account when modelling the resulting sample biomass. This is achieved empirically for the DG approach (using a generalized linear model with sampling volume as a covariate), and theoretically for the CPG approach (by scaling a parameter of the model). In this study, the consequences of this disparity between approaches were explored first using theoretical arguments, then using simulations and finally by applying the approaches to catch data from a commercial groundfish trawl fishery. 3. The simulation study results point out that the DG approach can lead to poor estimates when far from standard idealized sampling assumptions. On the contrary, the CPG approach is much more robust to variable sampling conditions, confirming theoretical predictions. These results were confirmed by the case study for which model performances were weaker for the DG. 4. Given the results, care must be taken when choosing an approach for dealing with zero-inflated continuous data. The DG approach, which is easily implemented using standard statistical softwares, works well when the sampling volume variability is small. However, better results were obtained with the CPG model when dealing with variable sampling volumes.

When analyzing the geographical variations of disease risk, one common problem is data sparseness. In such a setting, we investigate the possibility of using Bayesian shared spatial component models to strengthen inference and correct for any spatially structured sources of bias, when distinct data sources on one or more related diseases are available. Specifically, we apply our models to analyze the spatial variation of risk of two forms of scrapie infection affecting sheep in Wales (UK) using three surveillance sources on each disease. We first model each disease separately from the combined data sources and then extend our approach to jointly analyze diseases and data sources. We assess the predictive performances of several nested joint models through pseudo cross-validatory predictive model checks.