This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on global real economic activity using a quarterly vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices, and allows one to incorporate an extraneous indicator of oil price uncertainty such as realized volatility that greatly improves the precision of the estimated uncertainty series. The estimation results show that an oil price uncertainty shock has negative effects on world industrial production all else equal. For example, it is shown that a doubling of oil price volatility is associated with a cumulative decline as high as 0.3 percentage points in world industrial production.

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. iii Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may AbstractWe analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators.Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a realtime subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework. We jointly model and estimate macroeconomic (common) and indicator-specific uncertainties of four indicators, using a factor stochastic volatility model. Our macroeconomic uncertainty has three major spikes, aligned with the 1973-75, 1980, and 2007-09 recessions, while other recessions were characterized by increases in indicator-specific uncertainties. We also demonstrate for the first time in the literature that the selection of data vintages substantially affects the relative size of jumps in estimated uncertainty series. Finally, our macroeconomic uncertainty has a persistent negative impact on real economic activity, rather than producing "wait-and-see" dynamics. JEL classification: C38, E17, E32 Bank classification: Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods RésuméNous analysons l'évolution de l'incertitude macroéconomique aux États-Unis, à partir des erreurs de projection de différents indicateurs économiques. Celles-ci donnent des renseignements détaillés qui nous permettent de dégager une mesure subjective en temps réel de l'incertitude dans un cadre de référence simple. Nous avons à la fois modélisé et évalué l'incertitude macroéconomique (commune) et l'incertitude propre à quatre indicateurs, à l'aide d'un modèle factoriel à volatilité stochastique. D'après notre analyse, l'incertitude macroéconomique connaît trois pics principaux, qui coïncident avec les récessions de 1973-1975, de 1980 et de 2007-2009. Les autres récessions se caractérisent par une hausse de l'incertitude inhérente à chacun des indicateurs. Pour la première fois dans la littérature, nous démontrons également que le choix de la cuvée de données influe considérablement sur l'importance relative des sauts dans la série d'incertitudes évaluées. En dernier lieu, loin d'instaurer une dynamique attentiste, l'incertitude macroéconomique observée a une incidence défavorable persistante sur l'activité économique réelle. Classification JEL : C38, E17, E32 Classification de la Banque : Cycles et fluctuations économiques; Méthodes économétriques et statistiques iv Non-Technical SummaryThis paper an...

Delivering therapeutics to the central nervous system (CNS) is difficult because of the blood–brain barrier (BBB). Therapeutic delivery across the tight junctions of the BBB can be achieved through various endogenous transportation mechanisms. Receptor-mediated transcytosis (RMT) is one of the most widely investigated and used methods. Drugs can hijack RMT by expressing specific ligands that bind to receptors mediating transcytosis, such as the transferrin receptor (TfR), low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR), and insulin receptor (INSR). Cell-penetrating peptides and viral components originating from neurotropic viruses can also be utilized for the efficient BBB crossing of therapeutics. Exosomes, or small extracellular vesicles, have gained attention as natural nanoparticles for treating CNS diseases, owing to their potential for natural BBB crossing and broad surface engineering capability. RMT-mediated transport of exosomes expressing ligands such as LDLR-targeting apolipoprotein B has shown promising results. Although surface-modified exosomes possessing brain targetability have shown enhanced CNS delivery in preclinical studies, the successful development of clinically approved exosome therapeutics for CNS diseases requires the establishment of quantitative and qualitative methods for monitoring exosomal delivery to the brain parenchyma in vivo as well as elucidation of the mechanisms underlying the BBB crossing of surface-modified exosomes.

We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of various economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework. We jointly model and estimate macroeconomic (common) and indicator-specific uncertainties of four indicators, using a factor stochastic volatility model. Our macroeconomic uncertainty has three major spikes aligned with the 1973-75, 1980, and 2007-09 recessions, while other recessions were characterized by increases in indicator-specific uncertainties. We also show that the selection of data vintages affects the estimates and relative size of jumps in estimated uncertainty series. Finally, our macroeconomic uncertainty has a persistent negative impact on real economic activity, rather than producing "wait-and-see" dynamics.