Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.
Adaptation of pinnipeds to the marine habitat imposed parallel evolutions in their parasites. Ancestral pinnipeds must have harboured sucking lice, which were ancestors of the seal louse Echinophthirius horridus. The seal louse is one of the few insects that successfully adjusted to the marine environment. Adaptations such as keeping an air reservoir and the ability to hold on to and move on the host were necessary, as well as an adjustment of their life cycle to fit the diving habits of their host. E. horridus are confined to the Northern Hemisphere and have been reported from 9 species of northern phocids belonging to 4 genera, including land-locked seal species. The transmission from seal to seal is only possible when animals are hauled-out on land or ice. Lice are rarely found on healthy adult seals, but frequently on weak and young animals. The seal louse is suggested to play an important role as an intermediate host transmitting the heartworm Acanthocheilonema spirocauda among seals. However, the evidence is restricted to a single study where the first 3 larval stages of the heartworm were shown to develop in the louse. The fourth-stage larvae develop in the blood system of seals and eventually transform into the adult stage that matures in the heart. Since all other studies failed to confirm the presence of heartworm larvae in seal lice, other unknown intermediate hosts could be involved in the transmission of the heartworm. Transplacental transmission of microfilariae in seals has been suggested as an additional possibility, but is not likely to be important since the occurrence of heartworms in adult seals is very rare compared with juveniles. Furthermore, there are no findings of the first 3 larval stages in seals. This review shows that the heartworm infects nearly the same species of seals as the seal louse, except for the grey seal Halichoerus grypus, where the heartworm is absent. Prevalence and intensity of infection differ among regions in the Northern Hemisphere. As for seal lice, heartworms mainly infect immature seals, and after infection the prevalence seems to decrease with increasing age of the host.
Marine isopods of the genus Idotea [I. balthica (Pallas, 1772), I. chelipes (Pallas, 1766), and I. granulosa Rathke, 1843] are common meso-grazers that enter deep into the Baltic Sea and here appear to live at their physiological limit, determined by salinity and temperature tolerance. We review available data on distribution and community ecology to assess the functional role of Idoteain the Baltic Sea and how global change may affect essential ecological interactions. Data from the last 150 years suggest an on-going shift southward for I. chelipes and I. granulosa that may be caused by a changing climate. Several studies report local extinctions and mass abundances, which may be caused by a changing food web from over-fishing and eutrophication. The three species of Idotea have clear habitat segregation in the Baltic Sea, where salinity, temperature and vegetation are the main dimensions. Idotea spp. have a central role as grazers and in communities dominated by the perennial macrophytes Fucus spp. and Zostera marina and attain impressive feeding rates on a range of epiphytes/filamentous algae (top-down effect). Idotea can have both a direct negative grazing effect on macrophytes but also an indirect positive effect by removing epiphytes. The relative role of nutritional value and chemical defence for food preference is yet unclear for Idotea. Baltic idoteids are also important prey for several fish (bottom-up effect) and fish predation may have increased following overfishing of piscivorous fish. It is concluded that Idotea is a key taxon in the Baltic Sea food web, where guilds often contain few dominant species. Changes in population dynamics of Idotea, as a function of human generated global change, may have large-scale consequences for ecosystem functions in a future Baltic Sea, e.g. the extent of vegetation cover in the coastal zone.
AimThe Baltic Sea is one of the world's largest semi-enclosed brackish water bodies characterized by many special features, including endemic species that may be particularly threatened by climate change. We mapped potential distribution patterns under present and future conditions for a community with three trophic levels. We analysed climate-induced changes in the species' distribution patterns and examined possible consequences for the chosen food web.LocationBaltic Sea and northern Europe.MethodsWe developed two open-source workflow-based analytical tools: one for ecological niche modelling and another for raster layer comparison to compute the extent and intensity of change in species' potential distributions. Individual ecological niche models were generated under present conditions and then projected into a future climate change scenario (2050) for a food web consisting of a guild of meso-grazers (Idotea spp.), their host algae (Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus radicans) and their fish predator (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature and museum collections, together with five environmental layers at a resolution of 5 and 30 arc-minutes.ResultsHabitat suitability for Idotea balthica and Idotea chelipes in the Baltic Sea seems to be mostly determined by temperature and ice cover rather than by salinity. 2050 predictions for all modelled species show a northern/north-eastern shift in the Baltic Sea. The distribution ranges for Idotea granulosa and G. aculeatus are predicted to become patchier in the Baltic than in the rest of northern Europe, where the species will gain more suitable habitats.Main conclusionsFor the Baltic Sea, climate-induced changes resulted in a gain of suitable habitats for F. vesiculosus,I. chelipes and I. balthica, whereas lower habitat suitability was predicted for I. granulosa,F. radicans and G. aculeatus. The predicted north-eastern shift of I. balthica and I. chelipes into the distribution area of F. radicans in the Baltic Sea may result in increased grazing pressure. Such additional threats to isolated Baltic populations can lead to a higher extinction risk for the species, especially as climate changes are likely to be very rapid.
Marine biological invasions have increased with the development of global trading, causing the homogenization of communities and the decline of biodiversity. A main vector is ballast water exchange from shipping. This study evaluates the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) to predict the spread of 18 non-indigenous species (NIS) along shipping routes and their potential habitat suitability (hot/cold spots) in the Baltic Sea and Northeast Atlantic. Results show that, contrary to current risk assessment methods, temperature and sea ice concentration determine habitat suitability for 61% of species, rather than salinity (11%). We show high habitat suitability for NIS in the Skagerrak and Kattegat, a transitional area for NIS entering or leaving the Baltic Sea. As many cases of NIS introduction in the marine environment are associated with shipping pathways, we explore how ENM can be used to provide valuable information on the potential spread of NIS for ballast water risk assessment.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.